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Conde, D., Castillo, F. L., Escobar, C., García, C., Garcia Navarro, J. E., Sanz, V., et al. (2023). Forecasting Geomagnetic Storm Disturbances and Their Uncertainties Using Deep Learning. Space Weather, 21(11), e2023SW003474–27pp.
Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.
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Folgado, M. G., Sanz, V., Hirn, J., Lorenzo-Saez, E., & Urchueguia, J. F. (2025). Towards Predictive Pollution Control Through Traffic Flux Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Case Study in the City of Valencia. Applied AI Lett., 6(1), e106–15pp.
Abstract: Traffic congestion represents a significant urban challenge, with notable implications for public health and environmental well-being. Consequently, urban decision-makers prioritize the mitigation of congestion. This study delves into the efficacy of harnessing extensive data on urban traffic dynamics, coupled with comprehensive knowledge of road networks, to enable Artificial Intelligence (AI) in forecasting traffic flux well in advance. Such forecasts hold promise for informing emission reduction measures, particularly those aligned with Low Emission Zone policies. The investigation centers on Valencia, leveraging its robust traffic sensor infrastructure, one of the most densely deployed worldwide, encompassing approximately 3500 sensors strategically positioned across the city. Employing historical data spanning 2016 and 2017, we undertake the task of training and characterizing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network for the prediction of temporal traffic patterns. Our findings demonstrate the LSTM's efficacy in real-time forecasting of traffic flow evolution, facilitated by its ability to discern salient patterns within the dataset.
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