Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: We demonstrate how to realize within supergravity a novel chaotic-type inflationary scenario driven by the radial parts of a conjugate pair of Higgs superfields causing the spontaneous breaking of a grand unified gauge symmetry at a scale assuming the value of the supersymmetric grand unification scale. The superpotential is uniquely determined at the renormalizable level by the gauge symmetry and a continuous R symmetry. We select two types of Kahler potentials, which respect these symmetries as well as an approximate shift symmetry. In particular, they include in a logarithm a dominant shift-symmetric term proportional to a parameter c together with a small term violating this symmetry and characterized by a parameter c(+). In both cases, imposing a lower bound on c, inflation can be attained with subplanckian values of the original inflaton, while the corresponding effective theory respects perturbative unitarity for r +/- = c(+)/c_ <= 1. These inflationary models do not lead to overproduction of cosmic defects, are largely independent of the one-loop radiative corrections and accommodate, for natural values of r +/-, observable gravitational waves consistently with all the current observational data. The inflaton mass is mostly confined in the range (3.7 – 8.1) x 10(10) GeV.