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Gariazzo, S., Archidiacono, M., de Salas, P. F., Mena, O., Ternes, C. A., & Tortola, M. (2018). Neutrino masses and their ordering: global data, priors and models. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 03(3), 011–22pp.
Abstract: We present a full Bayesian analysis of the combination of current neutrino oscillation, neutrinoless double beta decay and Cosmic Microwave Background observations. Our major goal is to carefully investigate the possibility to single out one neutrino mass ordering, namely Normal Ordering or Inverted Ordering, with current data. Two possible parametrizations (three neutrino masses versus the lightest neutrino mass plus the two oscillation mass splittings) and priors (linear versus logarithmic) are exhaustively examined. We find that the preference for NO is only driven by neutrino oscillation data. Moreover, the values of the Bayes factor indicate that the evidence for NO is strong only when the scan is performed over the three neutrino masses with logarithmic priors; for every other combination of parameterization and prior, the preference for NO is only weak. As a by-product of our Bayesian analyses, we are able to (a) compare the Bayesian bounds on the neutrino mixing parameters to those obtained by means of frequentist approaches, finding a very good agreement; (b) determine that the lightest neutrino mass plus the two mass splittings parametrization, motivated by the physical observables, is strongly preferred over the three neutrino mass eigenstates scan and (c) find that logarithmic priors guarantee a weakly-to-moderately more efficient sampling of the parameter space. These results establish the optimal strategy to successfully explore the neutrino parameter space, based on the use of the oscillation mass splittings and a logarithmic prior on the lightest neutrino mass, when combining neutrino oscillation data with cosmology and neutrinoless double beta decay. We also show that the limits on the total neutrino mass Sigma m(nu) can change dramatically when moving from one prior to the other. These results have profound implications for future studies on the neutrino mass ordering, as they crucially state the need for self-consistent analyses which explore the best parametrization and priors, without combining results that involve different assumptions.
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Gariazzo, S., Gerbino, M., Brinckmann, T., Lattanzi, M., Mena, O., Schwetz, T., et al. (2022). Neutrino mass and mass ordering: no conclusive evidence for normal ordering. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 10(10), 010–18pp.
Abstract: The extraction of the neutrino mass ordering is one of the major challenges in particle physics and cosmology, not only for its implications for a fundamental theory of mass generation in nature, but also for its decisive role in the scale of future neutrinoless double beta decay experimental searches. It has been recently claimed that current oscillation, beta decay and cosmological limits on the different observables describing the neutrino mass parameter space provide robust decisive Bayesian evidence in favor of the normal ordering of the neutrino mass spectrum [1]. We further investigate these strong claims using a rich and wide phenomenology, with different sampling techniques of the neutrino parameter space. Contrary to the findings of Jimenez et al. [1], no decisive evidence for the normal mass ordering is found. Neutrino mass ordering analyses must rely on priors and parameterizations that are ordering-agnostic: robust results should be regarded as those in which the preference for the normal neutrino mass ordering is driven exclusively by the data, while we find a difference of up to a factor of 33 in the Bayes factors among the different priors and parameterizations exploited here. An ordering-agnostic prior would be represented by the case of parameterizations sampling over the two mass splittings and a mass scale, or those sampling over the individual neutrino masses via normal prior distributions only. In this regard, we show that the current significance in favor of the normal mass ordering should be taken as 2.7 sigma (i.e. moderate evidence), mostly driven by neutrino oscillation data. Let us stress that, while current data favor NO only mildly, we do not exclude the possibility that this may change in the future. Eventually, upcoming oscillation and cosmological data may (or may not) lead to a more significant exclusion of IO.
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Gariazzo, S., Mena, O., & Schwetz, T. (2023). Quantifying the tension between cosmological and terrestrial constraints on neutrino masses. Phys. Dark Universe, 40, 101226–8pp.
Abstract: The sensitivity of cosmology to the total neutrino mass scale E m & nu; is approaching the minimal values required by oscillation data. We study quantitatively possible tensions between current and forecasted cosmological and terrestrial neutrino mass limits by applying suitable statistical tests such as Bayesian suspiciousness, parameter goodness-of-fit tests, or a parameter difference test. In particular, the tension will depend on whether the normal or the inverted neutrino mass ordering is assumed. We argue, that it makes sense to reject inverted ordering from the cosmology/oscillation comparison only if data are consistent with normal ordering. Our results indicate that, in order to reject inverted ordering with this argument, an accuracy on the sum of neutrino masses & sigma;(m & nu;) of better than 0.02 eV would be required from future cosmological observations.
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Gomez-Cadenas, J. J., Martin-Albo, J., Muñoz Vidal, J., & Pena-Garay, C. (2013). Discovery potential of xenon-based neutrinoless double beta decay experiments in light of small angular scale CMB observations. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 03(3), 043–17pp.
Abstract: The South Pole Telescope (SPT) has probed an expanded angular range of the CMB temperature power spectrum. Their recent analysis of the latest cosmological data prefers nonzero neutrino masses, with Sigma m(nu) = (0.32 +/- 0.11) eV. This result, if con firmed by the upcoming Planck data, has deep implications on the discovery of the nature of neutrinos. In particular, the values of the effective neutrino mass m(beta beta) involved in neutrinoless double beta decay (beta beta 0 nu) are severely constrained for both the direct and inverse hierarchy, making a discovery much more likely. In this paper, we focus in xenon-based beta beta 0 nu experiments, on the double grounds of their good performance and the suitability of the technology to large-mass scaling. We show that the current generation, with effective masses in the range of 100 kg and conceivable exposures in the range of 500 kg.year, could already have a sizeable opportunity to observe beta beta 0 nu events, and their combined discovery potential is quite large. The next generation, with an exposure in the range of 10 ton.year, would have a much more enhanced sensitivity, in particular due to the very low specific background that all the xenon technologies (liquid xenon, high-pressure xenon and xenon dissolved in liquid scintillator) can achieve. In addition, a high-pressure xenon gas TPC also features superb energy resolution. We show that such detector can fully explore the range of allowed effective Majorana masses, thus making a discovery very likely.
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Jimenez, R., Kitching, T., Pena-Garay, C., & Verde, L. (2010). Can we measure the neutrino mass hierarchy in the sky? J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 05(5), 035–14pp.
Abstract: Cosmological probes are steadily reducing the total neutrino mass window, resulting in constraints on the neutrino-mass degeneracy as the most significant outcome. In this work we explore the discovery potential of cosmological probes to constrain the neutrino hierarchy, and point out some subtleties that could yield spurious claims of detection. This has an important implication for next generation of double beta decay experiments, that will be able to achieve a positive signal in the case of degenerate or inverted hierarchy of Majorana neutrinos. We find that cosmological experiments that nearly cover the whole sky could in principle distinguish the neutrino hierarchy by yielding 'substantial' evidence for one scenario over the another, via precise measurements of the shape of the matter power spectrum from large scale structure and weak gravitational lensing.
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