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Bertone, G., Calore, F., Caron, S., Ruiz de Austri, R., Kim, J. S., Trotta, R., et al. (2016). Global analysis of the pMSSM in light of the Fermi GeV excess: prospects for the LHC Run-II and astroparticle experiments. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 04(4), 037–20pp.
Abstract: We present a new global fit of the 19-dimensional phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (pMSSM-19) that complies with all the latest experimental results from dark matter indirect, direct and accelerator dark matter searches. We show that the model provides a satisfactory explanation of the excess of gamma rays from the Galactic centre observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope, assuming that it is produced by the annihilation of neutralinos in the Milky Way halo. We identify two regions that pass all the constraints: the first corresponds to neutralinos with a mass similar to 80 – 100 GeV annihilating into WW with a branching ratio of 95%; the second to heavier neutralinos, with mass similar to 180 – 200 GeV annihilating into (l) over barl with a branching ratio of 87%. We show that neutralinos compatible with the Galactic centre GeV excess will soon be within the reach of LHC run-II – notably through searches for charginos and neutralinos, squarks and light smuons – and of Xenon1T, thanks to its unprecedented sensitivity to spin-dependent cross-section off neutrons.
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Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Pieri, L., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2012). Complementarity of indirect and accelerator dark matter searches. Phys. Rev. D, 85(5), 055014–10pp.
Abstract: Even if supersymmetric particles are found at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), it will be difficult to prove that they constitute the bulk of the dark matter (DM) in the Universe using LHC data alone. We study the complementarity of LHC and DM indirect searches, working out explicitly the reconstruction of the DM properties for a specific benchmark model in the coannihilation region of a 24-parameters supersymmetric model. Combining mock high-luminosity LHC data with presentday null searches for gamma rays from dwarf galaxies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope, we show that current Fermi Large Area Telescope limits already have the capability of ruling out a spurious wino-like solution which would survive using LHC data only, thus leading to the correct identification of the cosmological solution. We also demonstrate that upcoming Planck constraints on the reionization history will have a similar constraining power and discuss the impact of a possible detection of gamma rays from DM annihilation in the Draco dwarf galaxy with a Cherenkov-Telescope-Array-like experiment. Our results indicate that indirect searches can be strongly complementary to the LHC in identifying the DM particles, even when astrophysical uncertainties are taken into account.
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Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strege, C., & Trotta, R. (2012). Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 01(1), 015–23pp.
Abstract: We present updated global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including the most recent constraints from the ATLAS and CMS detectors at the LHC, as well as the most recent results of the XENON100 experiment. Our robust analysis takes into account both astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter in the calculation of the rate of WIMP-induced recoils in direct detection experiment. We study the consequences for neutralino Dark Matter, and show that current direct detection data already allow to robustly rule out the so-called Focus Point region, therefore demonstrating the importance of particle astrophysics experiments in constraining extensions of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. We also observe an increased compatibility between results obtained from a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical perspective. We find that upcoming ton-scale direct detection experiments will probe essentially the entire currently favoured region (at the 99% level), almost independently of the statistical approach used. Prospects for indirect detection of the cMSSM are further reduced.
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Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2010). Identification of dark matter particles with LHC and direct detection data. Phys. Rev. D, 82(5), 055008–7pp.
Abstract: Dark matter (DM) is currently searched for with a variety of detection strategies. Accelerator searches are particularly promising, but even if weakly interacting massive particles are found at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), it will be difficult to prove that they constitute the bulk of the DM in the Universe Omega(DM). We show that a significantly better reconstruction of the DM properties can be obtained with a combined analysis of LHC and direct detection data, by making a simple Ansatz on the weakly interacting massive particles local density rho(0)((chi) over bar1), i.e., by assuming that the local density scales with the cosmological relic abundance, (rho(0)((chi) over bar1)/rho(DM)) = (Omega(0)((chi) over bar1)/Omega(DM)). We demonstrate this method in an explicit example in the context of a 24-parameter supersymmetric model, with a neutralino lightest supersymmetric particle in the stau coannihilation region. Our results show that future ton-scale direct detection experiments will allow to break degeneracies in the supersymmetric parameter space and achieve a significantly better reconstruction of the neutralino composition and its relic density than with LHC data alone.
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Bertone, G., Cumberbatch, D., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2012). Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 01(1), 004–24pp.
Abstract: The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the “Nightmare scenario” of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity at 14TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as similar or equal to 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.
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Bertone, G., Kong, K. C., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Global fits of the minimal universal extra dimensions scenario. Phys. Rev. D, 83(3), 036008–15pp.
Abstract: In theories with universal extra dimensions (UED), the gamma(1) particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent dark matter (DM) candidate. Here, we use a modified version of the SUPERBAYES code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive, in particular, the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the gamma(1) with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at similar to 10(-11) pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb(-1) of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.
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Bridges, M., Cranmer, K., Feroz, F., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). A coverage study of the CMSSM based on ATLAS sensitivity using fast neural networks techniques. J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 012–23pp.
Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.
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Cabrera, M. E., Casas, J. A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Quantifying the tension between the Higgs mass and (g-2)(mu) in the constrained MSSM. Phys. Rev. D, 84(1), 015006–7pp.
Abstract: Supersymmetry has often been invoked as the new physics that might reconcile the experimental muon magnetic anomaly, a(mu), with the theoretical prediction (basing the computation of the hadronic contribution on e(+)e(-) data). However, in the context of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), the required supersymmetric contributions (which grow with decreasing supersymmetric masses) are in potential tension with a possibly large Higgs mass (which requires large stop masses). In the limit of very large m(h) supersymmetry gets decoupled, and the CMSSM must show the same discrepancy as the standard model with a(mu). But it is much less clear for which size of m(h) does the tension start to be unbearable. In this paper, we quantify this tension with the help of Bayesian techniques. We find that for m(h) >= 125 GeV the maximum level of discrepancy given the current data (similar to 3.2 sigma) is already achieved. Requiring less than 3 sigma discrepancy, implies m(h) less than or similar to 120 GeV. For a larger Higgs mass we should give up either the CMSSM model or the computation of a(mu) based on e(+)e(-); or accept living with such an inconsistency.
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Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
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Johannesson, G., Ruiz de Austri, R., Vincent, A. C., Moskalenko, I. V., Orlando, E., Porter, T. A., et al. (2016). Bayesian analysis of cosmic-ray propagation: evidence against homogeneous diffusion. Astrophys. J., 824(1), 16–19pp.
Abstract: We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, (p) over bar and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p, (p) over bar, and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and Be-10/Be-9 secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update.
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