Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.

Abstract: In this paper we illustrate the use of Data Science techniques to analyse complex human communication. In particular, we consider tweets from leaders of political parties as a dynamical proxy to political programmes and ideas. We also study the temporal evolution of their contents as a reaction to specific events. We analyse levels of positive and negative sentiment in the tweets using new tools adapted to social media. We also train a Fully-Connected Neural Network (FCNN) to recognise the political affiliation of a tweet. The FCNN is able to predict the origin of the tweet with a precision in the range of 71-75%, and the political leaning (left or right) with a precision of around 90%. This study is meant to be viewed as an example of how to use Twitter data and different types of Data Science tools for a political analysis.

Abstract: We use the Fitmaker tool to incorporate the recent CDF measurement of mW in a global fit to electroweak, Higgs, and diboson data in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) including dimension-6 operators at linear order. We find that including any one of the SMEFT operators O-HWB, O-HD, O (l) (l) or O ((3)) (H l) with a non-zero coefficient could provide a better fit than the Standard Model, with the strongest pull for O-HD and no tension with other electroweak precision data. We then analyse which tree-level single-field extensions of the Standard Model could generate such operator coefficients with the appropriate sign, and discuss the masses and couplings of these fields that best fit the CDF measurement and other data. In particular, the global fit favours either a singlet Z 0 vector boson, a scalar electroweak triplet with zero hypercharge, or a vector electroweak triplet with unit hypercharge, followed by a singlet heavy neutral lepton, all with masses in the multi-TeV range for unit coupling.

Abstract: Searches for anomalous neutral triple gauge boson couplings (NTGCs) provide important tests for the gauge structure of the standard model. In SMEFT (“standard model effective field theory”) NTGCs appear only at the level of dimension-8 operators. While the phenomenology of these operators has been discussed extensively in the literature, renormalizable UV models that can generate these operators are scarce. In this work, we study a variety of extensions of the SM with heavy fermions and calculate their matching to d = 8 NTGC operators. We point out that the complete matching of UV models requires four different CP-conserving d = 8 operators and that the single CPC d = 8 operator, most commonly used by the experimental collaborations, does not describe all possible NTGC form factors. Despite stringent experimental constraints on NTGCs, limits on the scale of UV models are relatively weak, because their contributions are doubly suppressed (being d = 8 and 1-loop). We suggest a series of benchmark UV scenarios suitable for interpreting searches for NTGCs in the upcoming LHC runs, obtain their current limits and provide estimates for the expected sensitivity of the high-luminosity LHC.

Abstract: The plethora of increasingly precise experiments which hunt for axion-like particles (ALPs), as well as their widely different energy reach, call for the theoretical understanding of ALP couplings at loop-level. We derive the one-loop contributions to ALP-SM effective couplings, including finite corrections. The complete leading-order – dimension five – effective linear Lagrangian is considered. The ALP is left off-shell, which is of particular impact on LHC and accelerator searches of ALP couplings to gamma gamma, ZZ, WW, Z gamma gluons and fermions. All results are obtained in the covariant Rg gauge. A few phenomenological consequences are also explored as illustration, with flavour diagonal channels in the case of fermions: in particular, we explore constraints on the coupling of the ALP to top quarks, that can be extracted from LHC data, from astrophysical sources and from Dark Matter direct detection experiments such as PandaX, LUX and XENONIT. Furthermore, we clarify the relation between alternative ALP bases, the role of gauge anomalous couplings and their interface with chirality-conserving and chirality-flip fermion interactions, and we briefly discuss renormalization group aspects.