Abstract: Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Abstract: Off the beaten track of scalar singlet and doublet extensions of the Standard Model, triplets combine an interesting LHC phenomenology with an explanation for neutrino masses. The Georgi-Machacek model falls into this category, but it has never been fully explored in a global fit. We use the HEPfit package to combine recent experimental Higgs data with theoretical constraints and obtain strong limits on the mixing angles and mass differences between the heavy new scalars as well as their decay widths. We also find that the current signal strength measurements allow for a Higgs to vector boson coupling with an opposite sign to the Standard Model, but this possibility can be ruled out by the lack of direct evidence for heavy Higgs states. For these hypothetical particles, we identify the dominant decay channels and extract bounds on their branching ratios from the global fit, which can be used to single out the decay patterns relevant for the experimental searches.

Abstract: HEPfit is a flexible open-source tool which, given the Standard Model or any of its extensions, allows to (i) fit the model parameters to a given set of experimental observables; (ii) obtain predictions for observables. HEPfit can be used either in Monte Carlo mode, to perform a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of a given model, or as a library, to obtain predictions of observables for a given point in the parameter space of the model, allowing HEPfit to be used in any statistical framework. In the present version, around a thousand observables have been implemented in the Standard Model and in several new physics scenarios. In this paper, we describe the general structure of the code as well as models and observables implemented in the current release.

Abstract: We consider a simple extension of the electroweak theory, incorporating one SU(2)(L) doublet of colour-octet scalars with Yukawa couplings satisfying the principle of minimal flavour violation. Using the HEPfit package, we perform a global fit to the available data, including all relevant theoretical constraints, and extract the current bounds on the model parameters. Coloured scalars with masses below 1.05 TeV are already excluded, provided they are not fermiophobic. The mass splittings among the different (charged and CP-even and CP-odd neutral) scalars are restricted to be smaller than 20 GeV. Moreover, for scalar masses smaller than 1.5 TeV, the Yukawa coupling of the coloured scalar multiplet to the top quark cannot exceed the one of the SM Higgs doublet by more than 80%. These conclusions are quite generic and apply in more general frameworks (without fine tunings). The theoretical requirements of perturbative unitarity and vacuum stability enforce relevant constraints on the quartic scalar potential parameters that are not yet experimentally tested.