Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: Supersymmetry has often been invoked as the new physics that might reconcile the experimental muon magnetic anomaly, a(mu), with the theoretical prediction (basing the computation of the hadronic contribution on e(+)e(-) data). However, in the context of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), the required supersymmetric contributions (which grow with decreasing supersymmetric masses) are in potential tension with a possibly large Higgs mass (which requires large stop masses). In the limit of very large m(h) supersymmetry gets decoupled, and the CMSSM must show the same discrepancy as the standard model with a(mu). But it is much less clear for which size of m(h) does the tension start to be unbearable. In this paper, we quantify this tension with the help of Bayesian techniques. We find that for m(h) >= 125 GeV the maximum level of discrepancy given the current data (similar to 3.2 sigma) is already achieved. Requiring less than 3 sigma discrepancy, implies m(h) less than or similar to 120 GeV. For a larger Higgs mass we should give up either the CMSSM model or the computation of a(mu) based on e(+)e(-); or accept living with such an inconsistency.

Abstract: We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach. This negative chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino gets essentially fixed around 1TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is at similar to 2 sigma off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future dark matter experiments are quite high.