Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.

Abstract: In this paper we illustrate the use of Data Science techniques to analyse complex human communication. In particular, we consider tweets from leaders of political parties as a dynamical proxy to political programmes and ideas. We also study the temporal evolution of their contents as a reaction to specific events. We analyse levels of positive and negative sentiment in the tweets using new tools adapted to social media. We also train a Fully-Connected Neural Network (FCNN) to recognise the political affiliation of a tweet. The FCNN is able to predict the origin of the tweet with a precision in the range of 71-75%, and the political leaning (left or right) with a precision of around 90%. This study is meant to be viewed as an example of how to use Twitter data and different types of Data Science tools for a political analysis.

Abstract: Predicting coexistence patterns is a current challenge to understand diversity maintenance, especially in rich communities where these patterns' complexity is magnified through indirect interactions that prevent their approximation with classical experimental approaches. We explore cutting-edge Machine Learning techniques called Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) to predict species coexistence patterns in vegetation patches, training generative adversarial networks (GAN) and variational AutoEncoders (VAE) that are then used to unravel some of the mechanisms behind community assemblage. The GAN accurately reproduces real patches' species composition and plant species' affinity to different soil types, and the VAE also reaches a high level of accuracy, above 99%. Using the artificially generated patches, we found that high-order interactions tend to suppress the positive effects of low-order interactions. Finally, by reconstructing successional trajectories, we could identify the pioneer species with larger potential to generate a high diversity of distinct patches in terms of species composition. Understanding the complexity of species coexistence patterns in diverse ecological communities requires new approaches beyond heuristic rules. Generative Artificial Intelligence can be a powerful tool to this end as it allows to overcome the inherent dimensionality of this challenge.