Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.

Abstract: We present new global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including LHC 1/fb integrated luminosity SUSY exclusion limits, recent LHC 5/fb constraints on the mass of the Higgs boson and XENON100 direct detection data. Our analysis fully takes into account astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter the analysis when translating direct detection limits into constraints on the cMSSM parameter space. We provide results for both a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical analysis. We find that LHC 2011 constraints in combination with XENON100 data can rule out a significant portion of the cMSSM parameter space. Our results further emphasise the complementarity of collider experiments and direct detection searches in constraining extensions of Standard Model physics. The LHC 2011 exclusion limit strongly impacts on low-mass regions of cMSSM parameter space, such as the stau co-annihilation region, while direct detection data can rule out regions of high SUSY masses, such as the Focus-Point region, which is unreachable for the LHC in the near future. We show that, in addition to XENON100 data, the experimental constraint on the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon plays a dominant role in disfavouring large scalar and gaugino masses. We find that, should the LHC 2011 excess hinting towards a Higgs boson at 126 GeV be confirmed, currently favoured regions of the cMSSM parameter space will be robustly ruled out from both a Bayesian and a profile likelihood statistical perspective.

Abstract: The μnu SSM solves the μproblem of supersymmetric models and reproduces neutrino data, simply using couplings with right-handed neutrinos nu's. Given that these couplings break explicitly R parity, the gravitino is a natural candidate for decaying dark matter in the μnu SSM. In this work we carry out a complete analysis of the detection of μnu SSM gravitino dark matter through gamma-ray observations. In addition to the two-body decay producing a sharp line, we include in the analysis the three-body decays producing a smooth spectral signature. We perform first a deep exploration of the low-energy parameter space of the μnu SSM taking into account that neutrino data must be reproduced. Then, we compare the gamma-ray fluxes predicted by the model with Fermi-LAT observations. In particular, with the 95% CL upper limits on the total diffuse extragalactic gamma-ray background using 50 months of data, together with the upper limits on line emission from an updated analysis using 69.9 months of data. For standard values of bino and wino masses, gravitinos with masses larger than about 4 GeV, or lifetimes smaller than about 10(28) s, produce too large fluxes and are excluded as dark matter candidates. However, when limiting scenarios with large and close values of the gaugino masses are considered, the constraints turn out to be less stringent, excluding masses larger than 17 GeV and lifetimes smaller than 4 x 10(25) s.

Abstract: Model-independent search strategies have been increasingly proposed in recent years because on the one hand there has been no clear signal for new physics and on the other hand there is a lack of a highly probable and parameter-free extension of the standard model. For these reasons, there is no simple search target so far. In this work, we try to take a new direction and ask the question: bearing in mind that we have a large number of new physics theories that go beyond the Standard Model and may contain a grain of truth, can we improve our search strategy for unknown signals by using them “in combination”? In particular, we show that a signal hypothesis based on a large, intermingled set of many different theoretical signal models can be a superior approach to find an unknown BSM signal. Applied to a recent data challenge, we show that “mixture-of-theories training” outperforms strategies that optimize signal regions with a single BSM model as well as most unsupervised strategies. Applications of this work include anomaly detection and the definition of signal regions in the search for signals of new physics.

Abstract: In dark-matter annihilation channels to hadronic final states, stable particles – such as positrons, photons, antiprotons, and antineutrinos – are produced via complex sequences of phenomena including QED/QCD radiation, hadronisation, and hadron decays. These processes are normally modelled by Monte Carlo (MC) event generators whose limited accuracy imply intrinsic QCD uncertainties on the predictions for indirect-detection experiments like Fermi-LAT, Pamela, IceCube or Ams-02. In this article, we perform a comprehensive analysis of QCD uncertainties, meaning both perturbative and nonperturbative sources of uncertainty are included – estimated via variations of MC renormalization-scale and fragmentation-function parameters, respectively – in antimatter spectra from dark-matter annihilation, based on parametric variations of the Pythia 8 event generator. After performing several retunings of light-quark fragmentation functions, we define a set of variations that span a conservative estimate of the QCD uncertainties. We estimate the effects on antimatter spectra for various annihilation channels and final-state particle species, and discuss their impact on fitted values for the dark-matter mass and thermally-averaged annihilation cross section. We find dramatic impacts which can go up to O(10%) for the annihilation cross section. We provide the spectra in tabulated form including QCD uncertainties and code snippets to perform fast dark-matter fits, in this github repository.