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Pato, M., Baudis, L., Bertone, G., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strigari, L. E., & Trotta, R. (2011). Complementarity of dark matter direct detection targets. Phys. Rev. D, 83(8), 083505–11pp.
Abstract: We investigate the reconstruction capabilities of the dark matter mass and spin-independent cross section from future ton-scale direct detection experiments using germanium, xenon, or argon as targets. Adopting realistic values for the exposure, energy threshold, and resolution of dark matter experiments which will come online within 5 to 10 years, the degree of complementarity between different targets is quantified. We investigate how the uncertainty in the astrophysical parameters controlling the local dark matter density and velocity distribution affects the reconstruction. For a 50 GeV WIMP, astrophysical uncertainties degrade the accuracy in the mass reconstruction by up to a factor of similar to 4 for xenon and germanium, compared to the case when astrophysical quantities are fixed. However, the combination of argon, germanium, and xenon data increases the constraining power by a factor of similar to 2 compared to germanium or xenon alone. We show that future direct detection experiments can achieve self-calibration of some astrophysical parameters, and they will be able to constrain the WIMP mass with only very weak external astrophysical constraints.
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Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
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Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strege, C., & Trotta, R. (2012). Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 01(1), 015–23pp.
Abstract: We present updated global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including the most recent constraints from the ATLAS and CMS detectors at the LHC, as well as the most recent results of the XENON100 experiment. Our robust analysis takes into account both astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter in the calculation of the rate of WIMP-induced recoils in direct detection experiment. We study the consequences for neutralino Dark Matter, and show that current direct detection data already allow to robustly rule out the so-called Focus Point region, therefore demonstrating the importance of particle astrophysics experiments in constraining extensions of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. We also observe an increased compatibility between results obtained from a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical perspective. We find that upcoming ton-scale direct detection experiments will probe essentially the entire currently favoured region (at the 99% level), almost independently of the statistical approach used. Prospects for indirect detection of the cMSSM are further reduced.
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Bertone, G., Cumberbatch, D., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2012). Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 01(1), 004–24pp.
Abstract: The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the “Nightmare scenario” of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity at 14TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as similar or equal to 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.
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Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Pieri, L., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2012). Complementarity of indirect and accelerator dark matter searches. Phys. Rev. D, 85(5), 055014–10pp.
Abstract: Even if supersymmetric particles are found at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), it will be difficult to prove that they constitute the bulk of the dark matter (DM) in the Universe using LHC data alone. We study the complementarity of LHC and DM indirect searches, working out explicitly the reconstruction of the DM properties for a specific benchmark model in the coannihilation region of a 24-parameters supersymmetric model. Combining mock high-luminosity LHC data with presentday null searches for gamma rays from dwarf galaxies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope, we show that current Fermi Large Area Telescope limits already have the capability of ruling out a spurious wino-like solution which would survive using LHC data only, thus leading to the correct identification of the cosmological solution. We also demonstrate that upcoming Planck constraints on the reionization history will have a similar constraining power and discuss the impact of a possible detection of gamma rays from DM annihilation in the Draco dwarf galaxy with a Cherenkov-Telescope-Array-like experiment. Our results indicate that indirect searches can be strongly complementary to the LHC in identifying the DM particles, even when astrophysical uncertainties are taken into account.
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