Abstract: Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Abstract: CP asymmetries for neutrino oscillations in matter can be disentangled into the matter-induced CPT-odd (T-invariant) component and the genuine T-odd (CPT-invariant) component. For their understanding in terms of the relevant ingredients, we develop a new perturbative expansion in both m2| without any assumptions between m2 and a, and study the subtleties of the vacuum limit in the two terms of the CP asymmetry, moving from the CPT-invariant vacuum limit a 0 to the T-invariant limit m20. In the experimental region of terrestrial accelerator neutrinos, we calculate their approximate expressions from which we prove that, at medium baselines, the CPT-odd component is small and nearly -independent, so it can be subtracted from the experimental CP asymmetry as a theoretical background, provided the hierarchy is known. At long baselines, on the other hand, we find that (i) a Hierarchy-odd term in the CPT-odd component dominates the CP asymmetry for energies above the first oscillation node, and (ii) the CPT-odd term vanishes, independent of the CP phase , at E = 0.92 GeV (L/1300 km) near the second oscillation maximum, where the T-odd term is almost maximal and proportional to sin . A measurement of the CP asymmetry in these energy regions would thus provide separate information on (i) the neutrino mass ordering, and (ii) direct evidence of genuine CP violation in the lepton sector.