Abstract: Accurate power spectrum (or correlation function) covariance matrices are a crucial requirement for cosmological parameter estimation from large scale structure surveys. In order to minimize reliance on computationally expensive mock catalogs, it is important to have a solid analytic understanding of the different components that make up a covariance matrix. Considering the matter power spectrum covariance matrix, it has recently been found that there is a potentially dominant effect on mildly non-linear scales due to power in modes of size equal to and larger than the survey volume. This beat coupling effect has been derived analytically in perturbation theory and while it has been tested with simulations, some questions remain unanswered. Moreover, there is an additional effect of these large modes, which has so far not been included in analytic studies, namely the effect on the estimated average density which enters the power spectrum estimate. In this article, we work out analytic, perturbation theory based expressions including both the beat coupling and this local average effect and we show that while, when isolated, beat coupling indeed causes large excess covariance in agreement with the literature, in a realistic scenario this is compensated almost entirely by the local average effect, leaving only similar to 10% of the excess. We test our analytic expressions by comparison to a suite of large N-body simulations, using both full simulation boxes and subboxes thereof to study cases without beat coupling, with beat coupling and with both beat coupling and the local average effect. For the variances, we find excellent agreement with the analytic expressions for k < 0.2 hMpc(-1) at z = 0.5, while the correlation coefficients agree to beyond k = 0.4 hMpc(-1). As expected, the range of agreement increases towards higher redshift and decreases slightly towards z = 0. We finish by including the large-mode effects in a full covariance matrix description for arbitrary survey geometry and confirming its validity using simulations. This may be useful as a stepping stone towards building an actual galaxy (or other tracer's) power spectrum covariance matrix.

Abstract: The XENON1T experiment is currently in the commissioning phase at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, Italy. In this article we study the experiment's expected sensitivity to the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon interaction cross section, based on Monte Carlo predictions of the electronic and nuclear recoil backgrounds. The total electronic recoil background in 1 tonne fiducial volume and (1, 12) keV electronic recoil equivalent energy region, before applying any selection to discriminate between electronic and nuclear recoils, is (1.80+/-0.15) . 10(-4) (kg.day.keV)(-1), mainly due to the decay of Rn-222 daughters inside the xenon target. The nuclear recoil background in the corresponding nuclear recoil equivalent energy region (4, 50) keV, is composed of (0.6 +/- 0.1) (t.y)(-1) from radiogenic neutrons, (1.8+/-0.3) . 10(-2) (t.y)(-1) from coherent scattering of neutrinos, and less than 0.01 (t.y)(-1) from muon-induced neutrons. The sensitivity of XENON1T is calculated with the Pro file Likelihood Ratio method, after converting the deposited energy of electronic and nuclear recoils into the scintillation and ionization signals seen in the detector. We take into account the systematic uncertainties on the photon and electron emission model, and on the estimation of the backgrounds, treated as nuisance parameters. The main contribution comes from the relative scintillation efficiency L-eff, which affects both the signal from WIMPs and the nuclear recoil backgrounds. After a 2 y measurement in 1 tonne fiducial volume, the sensitivity reaches a minimum cross section of 1.6 . 10(-47) cm(2) at m(chi) = 50 GeV/c(2).

Abstract: The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations.

Abstract: Dark-matter particles that annihilate or decay can undergo complex sequences of processes, including strong and electromagnetic radiation, hadronisation, and hadron de-cays, before particles that are stable on astrophysical time scales are produced. Antiprotons produced in this way may leave footprints in experiments such as AMS-02. Several groups have reported an excess of events in the antiproton flux in the rigidity range of 10-20 GV. However, the theoretical modeling of baryon production is not straightforward and relies in part on phenomenological models in Monte Carlo event generators. In this work, we assess the impact of QCD uncertainties on the spectra of antiprotons from dark-matter annihila-tion. As a proof-of-principle, we show that for a two-parameter model that depends only on the thermally-averaged annihilation cross section ((o -v)) and the dark-matter mass (Mx), QCD uncertainties can affect the best-fit mass by up to ti 14% (with large uncertainties for large DM masses), depending on the choice of Mx and the annihilation channel (bb over bar or W+W-), and (o -v) by up to ti 10%. For comparison, changes to the underlying diffusion parameters are found to be within 1%-5%, and the results are also quite resilient to the choice of cosmic-ray propagation model. These findings indicate that QCD uncertainties need to be included in future DM analyses. To facilitate full-fledged analyses, we provide the spectra in tabulated form including QCD uncertainties and code snippets to perform mass interpolations and quick DM fits. The code can be found in this GitHub [1] repository.

Abstract: Motivated by the recent galactic center gamma-ray excess identified in the Fermi-LAT data, we perform a detailed study of QCD fragmentation uncertainties in the modeling of the energy spectra of gamma-rays from Dark-Matter (DM) annihilation. When Dark-Matter particles annihilate to coloured final states, either directly or via decays such as W(*) -> qq-', photons are produced from a complex sequence of shower, hadronisation and hadron decays. In phenomenological studies their energy spectra are typically computed using Monte Carlo event generators. These results have however intrinsic uncertainties due to the specific model used and the choice of model parameters, which are difficult to asses and which are typically neglected. We derive a new set of hadronisation parameters (tunes) for the PYTHIA 8.2 Monte Carlo generator from a fit to LEP and SLD data at the Z peak. For the first time we also derive a conservative set of uncertainties on the shower and hadronisation model parameters. Their impact on the gamma-ray energy spectra is evaluated and discussed for a range of DM masses and annihilation channels. The spectra and their uncertainties are also provided in tabulated form for future use. The fragmentation-parameter uncertainties may be useful for collider studies as well.