Abstract: We present new global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including LHC 1/fb integrated luminosity SUSY exclusion limits, recent LHC 5/fb constraints on the mass of the Higgs boson and XENON100 direct detection data. Our analysis fully takes into account astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter the analysis when translating direct detection limits into constraints on the cMSSM parameter space. We provide results for both a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical analysis. We find that LHC 2011 constraints in combination with XENON100 data can rule out a significant portion of the cMSSM parameter space. Our results further emphasise the complementarity of collider experiments and direct detection searches in constraining extensions of Standard Model physics. The LHC 2011 exclusion limit strongly impacts on low-mass regions of cMSSM parameter space, such as the stau co-annihilation region, while direct detection data can rule out regions of high SUSY masses, such as the Focus-Point region, which is unreachable for the LHC in the near future. We show that, in addition to XENON100 data, the experimental constraint on the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon plays a dominant role in disfavouring large scalar and gaugino masses. We find that, should the LHC 2011 excess hinting towards a Higgs boson at 126 GeV be confirmed, currently favoured regions of the cMSSM parameter space will be robustly ruled out from both a Bayesian and a profile likelihood statistical perspective.

Abstract: In dark-matter annihilation channels to hadronic final states, stable particles – such as positrons, photons, antiprotons, and antineutrinos – are produced via complex sequences of phenomena including QED/QCD radiation, hadronisation, and hadron decays. These processes are normally modelled by Monte Carlo (MC) event generators whose limited accuracy imply intrinsic QCD uncertainties on the predictions for indirect-detection experiments like Fermi-LAT, Pamela, IceCube or Ams-02. In this article, we perform a comprehensive analysis of QCD uncertainties, meaning both perturbative and nonperturbative sources of uncertainty are included – estimated via variations of MC renormalization-scale and fragmentation-function parameters, respectively – in antimatter spectra from dark-matter annihilation, based on parametric variations of the Pythia 8 event generator. After performing several retunings of light-quark fragmentation functions, we define a set of variations that span a conservative estimate of the QCD uncertainties. We estimate the effects on antimatter spectra for various annihilation channels and final-state particle species, and discuss their impact on fitted values for the dark-matter mass and thermally-averaged annihilation cross section. We find dramatic impacts which can go up to O(10%) for the annihilation cross section. We provide the spectra in tabulated form including QCD uncertainties and code snippets to perform fast dark-matter fits, in this github repository.

Abstract: We describe an extension of the SOFTSUSY spectrum calculator to include two-loop supersymmetric QCD (SUSYQCD) corrections of order O(alpha(2)(s)) to gluino and squark pole masses, either in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) or the next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model (NMSSM). This document provides an overview of the program and acts as a manual for the new version of SOFTSUSY, which includes the increase in accuracy in squark and gluino pole mass predictions. Program summary Program title: SOFTSUSY Program Files doi: http://dx.doLorg/10.17632/sh77x9j7hs.1 Licensing provisions: GNU GPLv3 Programming language: C++, fortran, C Nature of problem: Calculating supersymmetric particle spectrum, mixing parameters and couplings in the MSSM or the NMSSM. The solution to the renormalization group equations must be consistent with theoretical boundary conditions on supersymmetry breaking parameters, as well as a weak-scale boundary condition on gauge couplings, Yukawa couplings and the Higgs potential parameters. Solution method: Nested fixed point iteration. Restrictions: SOFTSUSY will provide a solution only in the perturbative regime and it assumes that all couplings of the model are real (i.e. CP-conserving). If the parameter point under investigation is nonphysical for some reason (for example because the electroWeak potential does not have an acceptable minimum), SOFTSUSY returns an error message. The higher order corrections included are for the MSSM (R-parity conserving or violating) or the real R-parity conserving NMSSM only. Journal reference of previous version: Comput. Phys. Comm. 189 (2015) 192. Does the new version supersede the previous version?: Yes. Reasons for the new version: It is desirable to improve the accuracy of the squark and gluinos mass predictions, since they strongly affect supersymmetric particle production cross-sections at colliders. Summary of revisions: The calculation of the squark and gluino pole masses is extended to be of next-to next-to leading order in SUSYQCD, i.e. including terms up to O(g(s)(4)/(16 pi(2))(2)). Additional comments: Program obtainable from http://softsusy.hepforge.org/

Abstract: We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach. This negative chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino gets essentially fixed around 1TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is at similar to 2 sigma off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future dark matter experiments are quite high.

Abstract: In this paper, we minimize and compare two different fine-tuning measures in four high-scale supersymmetric models that are embedded in the MSSM. In addition, we determine the impact of current and future dark matter direct detection and collider experiments on the fine-tuning. We then compare the low-scale electroweak measure with the high-scale Barbieri-Giudice measure. We find that they reduce to the same value when the higgsino parameter drives the degree of fine-tuning. We also find spectra where the high-scale measure turns out to be lower than the low-scale measure. Depending on the high-scale model and fine-tuning definition, we find a minimal fine-tuning of 3-38 (corresponding to O(10-1)%) for the low-scale measure, and 63-571 (corresponding to O(1-0.1)%) for the high-scale measure. We stress that it is too early to conclude on the fate of supersymmetry, based only on the fine-tuning paradigm.