Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.

Abstract: We present a new way to interpret Top Standard Model measurements going beyond the SMEFT framework. Instead of the usual paradigm in Top EFT, where the main effects come from tails in momenta distributions, we propose an interpretation in terms of new physics which only shows up at loop-level. The effects of these new states, which can be lighter than required within the SMEFT, appear as distinctive structures at high momenta, but may be suppressed at the tails of distributions. As an illustration of this phenomena, we present the explicit case of a UV model with a Z \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ \mathcal{Z} $$\end{document} 2 symmetry, including a Dark Matter candidate and a top-partner. This simple UV model reproduces the main features of this class of signatures, particularly a momentum-dependent form factor with more structure than the SMEFT. As the new states can be lighter than in SMEFT, we explore the interplay between the reinterpretation of direct searches for colored states and Dark Matter, and Top measurements, made by ATLAS and CMS in the differential t t over bar \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ t\overline{t} $$\end{document} final state. We also compare our method with what one would expect using the SMEFT reinterpretation, finding that using the full loop information provides a better discriminating power.

Abstract: The matching of specific new physics scenarios onto the SMEFT framework is a well-understood procedure. The inverse problem, the matching of the SMEFT to UV scenarios, is more difficult and requires the development of new methods to perform a systematic exploration of models. In this paper we use a diagrammatic technique to construct in an automated way a complete set of possible UV models (given certain, well specified assumptions) that can produce specific groups of SMEFT operators, and illustrate its use by generating models with no tree-level contributions to four-fermion (4F) operators. Those scenarios, which only contribute to 4F at one-loop order, can contain relatively light particles that could be discovered at the LHC in direct searches. For this class of models, we find an interesting interplay between indirect SMEFT and direct searches. We discuss some examples on how this interplay would look like when combining low-energy observables with the SMEFT Higgs-fermion analyses and searches for resonance at the LHC.