Abstract: Using the Fenchel-Eggleston theorem for convex hulls (an extension of the Caratheodory theorem), we prove that any likelihood can be maximized by either a dark matter 1-speed distribution F(v) in Earth's frame or 2-Galactic velocity distribution f(gal) ((u) over right arrow), consisting of a sum of delta functions. The former case applies only to time-averaged rate measurements and the maximum number of delta functions is (N-1), where N is the total number of data entries. The second case applies to any harmonic expansion coefficient of the time-dependent rate and the maximum number of terms is N. Using time-averaged rates, the aforementioned form of F(v) results in a piecewise constant unmodulated halo function (eta) over tilde (BF)-B-0 (v(min)) (which is an integral of the speed distribution) with at most (N-1) downward steps. The authors had previously proven this result for likelihoods comprised of at least one extended likelihood, and found the best-fit halo function to be unique. This uniqueness, however, cannot be guaranteed in the more general analysis applied to arbitrary likelihoods. Thus we introduce a method for determining whether there exists a unique best-fit halo function, and provide a procedure for constructing either a pointwise con fi dence band, if the best-fit halo function is unique, or a degeneracy band, if it is not. Using measurements of modulation amplitudes, the aforementioned form of f(gal) ((u) over right arrow), which is a sum of Galactic streams, yields a periodic time-dependent halo function (eta) over right arrow BF (v(min); t) which at any fixed time is a piecewise constant function of v(min) with at most N downward steps. In this case, we explain how to construct pointwise confidence and degeneracy bands from the time-averaged halo function. Finally, we show that requiring an isotropic Galactic velocity distribution leads to a Galactic speed distribution F(u)that is once again a sum of delta functions, and produces a time-dependent (eta) over tilde BF (v(min); t) function (and a time-averaged (eta) over tilde (0) BF (v(min))) that is piecewise linear, di ff ering significantly from best-fit halo functions obtained without the assumption of isotropy.

Abstract: We present new global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including LHC 1/fb integrated luminosity SUSY exclusion limits, recent LHC 5/fb constraints on the mass of the Higgs boson and XENON100 direct detection data. Our analysis fully takes into account astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter the analysis when translating direct detection limits into constraints on the cMSSM parameter space. We provide results for both a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical analysis. We find that LHC 2011 constraints in combination with XENON100 data can rule out a significant portion of the cMSSM parameter space. Our results further emphasise the complementarity of collider experiments and direct detection searches in constraining extensions of Standard Model physics. The LHC 2011 exclusion limit strongly impacts on low-mass regions of cMSSM parameter space, such as the stau co-annihilation region, while direct detection data can rule out regions of high SUSY masses, such as the Focus-Point region, which is unreachable for the LHC in the near future. We show that, in addition to XENON100 data, the experimental constraint on the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon plays a dominant role in disfavouring large scalar and gaugino masses. We find that, should the LHC 2011 excess hinting towards a Higgs boson at 126 GeV be confirmed, currently favoured regions of the cMSSM parameter space will be robustly ruled out from both a Bayesian and a profile likelihood statistical perspective.