Abstract: Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.

Abstract: Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown.

Abstract: The Tibet AS gamma and LHAASO collaborations recently reported the observation of a gamma-ray diffuse emission with energy up to the PeV level from the Galactic plane.Aims. We discuss the relevance of non-uniform cosmic-ray transport scenarios and the implications of these results for cosmic-ray physics.Methods. We used the DRAGON and HERMES codes to build high-resolution maps and spectral distributions of that emission for several representative models under the condition that they reproduce a wide set of local cosmic-ray data up to 100 PeV.Results. We show that the energy spectra measured by Tibet AS gamma, LHAASO, ARGO-YBJ, and Fermi-LAT in several regions of interest in the sky can all be reasonably described in terms of the emission arising by the Galactic cosmic-ray “sea”. We also show that all our models are compatible with IceTop gamma-ray upper limits.Conclusions. We compare the predictions of conventional and space-dependent transport models with those data sets. Although the Fermi-LAT, ARGO-YBJ, and LHAASO preliminary data slightly favor this scenario, due to the still large experimental errors, the poorly known source spectral shape at the highest energies, the potential role of spatial fluctuations in the leptonic component, and a possible larger-than-expected contamination due to unresolved sources, a solid confirmation requires further investigations. We discuss which measurements will be most relevant in order to resolve the remaining degeneracy.