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Gunion, J. F., Lopez-Fogliani, D. E., Roszkowski, L., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Varley, T. A. (2011). Next-to-minimal supersymmetric model Higgs scenarios for partially universal GUT scale boundary conditions. Phys. Rev. D, 84(5), 055026–17pp.
Abstract: We examine the extent to which it is possible to realize the NMSSM “ideal Higgs” models espoused in several papers by Gunion et al. in the context of partially universal GUT scale boundary conditions. To this end we use the powerful methodology of nested sampling. We pay particular attention to whether ideal-Higgs-like points not only pass LEP constraints but are also acceptable in terms of the numerous constraints now available, including those from the Tevatron and B-factory data, (g – 2)(mu) and the relic density Omega h(2). In general for this particular methodology and range of parameters chosen, very few points corresponding to said previous studies were found, and those that were found were at best 2 sigma away from the preferred relic density value. Instead, there exist a class of points, which combine a mostly singlet-like Higgs with a mostly singlino-like neutralino coannihilating with the lightest stau, that are able to effectively pass all implemented constraints in the region 80 < m(h) < 100. It seems that the spin-independent direct detection cross section acts as a key discriminator between ideal Higgs points and the hard to detect singlino-like points.
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Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
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Cabrera, M. E., Casas, J. A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Quantifying the tension between the Higgs mass and (g-2)(mu) in the constrained MSSM. Phys. Rev. D, 84(1), 015006–7pp.
Abstract: Supersymmetry has often been invoked as the new physics that might reconcile the experimental muon magnetic anomaly, a(mu), with the theoretical prediction (basing the computation of the hadronic contribution on e(+)e(-) data). However, in the context of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), the required supersymmetric contributions (which grow with decreasing supersymmetric masses) are in potential tension with a possibly large Higgs mass (which requires large stop masses). In the limit of very large m(h) supersymmetry gets decoupled, and the CMSSM must show the same discrepancy as the standard model with a(mu). But it is much less clear for which size of m(h) does the tension start to be unbearable. In this paper, we quantify this tension with the help of Bayesian techniques. We find that for m(h) >= 125 GeV the maximum level of discrepancy given the current data (similar to 3.2 sigma) is already achieved. Requiring less than 3 sigma discrepancy, implies m(h) less than or similar to 120 GeV. For a larger Higgs mass we should give up either the CMSSM model or the computation of a(mu) based on e(+)e(-); or accept living with such an inconsistency.
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Casas, J. A., Moreno, J. M., Rius, N., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Zaldivar, B. (2011). Fair scans of the seesaw. Consequences for predictions on LFV processes. J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 034–22pp.
Abstract: We give a straightforward procedure to scan the seesaw parameter-space, using the common “R-parametrization”, in a complete way. This includes a very simple rule to incorporate the perturbativity requirement as a condition for the entries of the R-matrix. As a relevant application, we show that the somewhat propagated belief that BR(mu -> e, gamma) in supersymmetric seesaw models depends strongly on the value of theta(13) is an “optical effect” produced by incomplete scans, and does not hold after a careful analytical and numerical study. When the complete scan is done, BR(mu -> e, gamma) gets very insensitive to theta(13). This holds even if the right-handed neutrino masses are kept constant or under control (as is required for succesful leptogenesis). In most cases the values of BR(mu -> e, gamma) are larger than the experimental upper bound. Including (unflavoured) leptogenesis does not introduce any further dependence on theta(13), although decreases the typical value of BR(mu -> e, gamma).
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Bridges, M., Cranmer, K., Feroz, F., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). A coverage study of the CMSSM based on ATLAS sensitivity using fast neural networks techniques. J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 012–23pp.
Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.
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