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Author |
Caron, S.; Eckner, C.; Hendriks, L.; Johannesson, G.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Zaharijas, G. |
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Title |
Mind the gap: the discrepancy between simulation and reality drives interpretations of the Galactic Center Excess |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2023 |
Publication |
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. |
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Volume |
06 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
013 - 56pp |
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Keywords |
dark matter simulations; gamma ray experiments; Machine learning; millisecond pulsars |
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Abstract |
The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations. |
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Address |
[Caron, Sascha; Hendriks, Luc] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Theoret High Energy Phys, Heyendaalseweg 135, NL-6525 AJ Nijmegen, Netherlands, Email: scaron@nikhef.nl; |
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Publisher  |
IOP Publishing Ltd |
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English |
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Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1475-7516 |
ISBN |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:001025516000009 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
5576 |
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Author |
Amerio, A.; Cuoco, A.; Fornengo, N. |
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Title |
Extracting the gamma-ray source-count distribution below the Fermi-LAT detection limit with deep learning |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2023 |
Publication |
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. |
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Volume |
09 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
029 - 39pp |
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Keywords |
gamma ray theory; Machine learning |
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Abstract |
We reconstruct the extra-galactic gamma-ray source-count distribution, or dN/dS, of resolved and unresolved sources by adopting machine learning techniques. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network on synthetic 2-dimensional sky-maps, which are built by varying parameters of underlying source-counts models and incorporate the FermiLAT instrumental response functions. The trained neural network is then applied to the Fermi-LAT data, from which we estimate the source count distribution down to flux levels a factor of 50 below the Fermi-LAT threshold. We perform our analysis using 14 years of data collected in the (1, 10) GeV energy range. The results we obtain show a source count distribution which, in the resolved regime, is in excellent agreement with the one derived from cataloged sources, and then extends as dN/dS " S-2 in the unresolved regime, down to fluxes of 5 center dot 10-12 cm-2 s-1. The neural network architecture and the devised methodology have the flexibility to enable future analyses to study the energy dependence of the source-count distribution. |
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Address |
[Amerio, A.] Univ Valencia, Inst Fis Corpuscular IFIC, Calle Catedrat Jose Beltran 2, Paterna 46980, Spain, Email: aurelio.amerio@ific.uv.es; |
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Publisher |
IOP Publishing Ltd |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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ISSN |
1475-7516 |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:001097055700001 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
5785 |
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Author |
Blanes-Selva, V.; Ruiz-Garcia, V.; Tortajada, S.; Benedi, J.M.; Valdivieso, B.; Garcia-Gomez, J.M. |
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Title |
Design of 1-year mortality forecast at hospital admission: A machine learning approach |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2021 |
Publication |
Health Informatics Journal |
Abbreviated Journal |
Health Inform. J. |
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Volume |
27 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
13pp |
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Keywords |
machine learning; palliative care; hospital admission data; mortality forecast |
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Abstract |
Palliative care is referred to a set of programs for patients that suffer life-limiting illnesses. These programs aim to maximize the quality of life (QoL) for the last stage of life. They are currently based on clinical evaluation of the risk of 1-year mortality. The main aim of this work is to develop and validate machine-learning-based models to predict the exitus of a patient within the next year using data gathered at hospital admission. Five machine-learning techniques were applied using a retrospective dataset. The evaluation was performed with five metrics computed by a resampling strategy: Accuracy, the area under the ROC curve, Specificity, Sensitivity, and the Balanced Error Rate. All models reported an AUC ROC from 0.857 to 0.91. Specifically, Gradient Boosting Classifier was the best model, producing an AUC ROC of 0.91, a sensitivity of 0.858, a specificity of 0.808, and a BER of 0.1687. Information from standard procedures at hospital admission combined with machine learning techniques produced models with competitive discriminative power. Our models reach the best results reported in the state of the art. These results demonstrate that they can be used as an accurate data-driven palliative care criteria inclusion. |
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Address |
[Blanes-Selva, Vicent; Benedi, Jose-Miguel; Garcia-Gomez, Juan M.] Univ Politecn Valencia, Valencia, Spain, Email: viblasel@upv.es |
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Publisher |
Sage Publications Inc |
Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Volume |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1460-4582 |
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Notes |
WOS:000645567000008 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
no |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
5182 |
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Author |
Folgado, M.G.; Sanz, V. |
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Title |
Exploring the political pulse of a country using data science tools |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2022 |
Publication |
Journal of Computational Social Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Comput. Soc. Sci. |
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Volume |
5 |
Issue |
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Pages |
987-1000 |
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Keywords |
Politics; Spain; Sentiment analysis; Artificial Intelligence; Machine learning; Neural networks; Natural Language Processing (NLP) |
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Abstract |
In this paper we illustrate the use of Data Science techniques to analyse complex human communication. In particular, we consider tweets from leaders of political parties as a dynamical proxy to political programmes and ideas. We also study the temporal evolution of their contents as a reaction to specific events. We analyse levels of positive and negative sentiment in the tweets using new tools adapted to social media. We also train a Fully-Connected Neural Network (FCNN) to recognise the political affiliation of a tweet. The FCNN is able to predict the origin of the tweet with a precision in the range of 71-75%, and the political leaning (left or right) with a precision of around 90%. This study is meant to be viewed as an example of how to use Twitter data and different types of Data Science tools for a political analysis. |
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Address |
[Folgado, Miguel G.; Sanz, Veronica] Univ Valencia, Inst Fis Corpuscular IFIC, CSIC, Valencia 46980, Spain, Email: migarfol@upvnet.upv.es; |
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Publisher |
Springernature |
Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2432-2717 |
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Notes |
WOS:000742263500002 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
5077 |
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