Abstract: We analyze 7.3 yr of ANTARES high-energy neutrino and Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) gamma-ray data in search of cosmic neutrino + gamma-ray (nu + gamma) transient sources or source populations. Our analysis has the potential to detect either individual nu + gamma transient sources (durations delta t less than or similar to 1000 s), if they exhibit sufficient gamma-ray or neutrino multiplicity, or a statistical excess of nu + gamma transients of individually lower multiplicities. Individual high gamma-ray multiplicity events could be produced, for example, by a single ANTARES neutrino in coincidence with a LAT-detected gamma-ray burst. Treating ANTARES track and cascade event types separately, we establish detection thresholds by Monte Carlo scrambling of the neutrino data, and determine our analysis sensitivity by signal injection against these scrambled data sets. We find our analysis is sensitive to nu + gamma transient populations responsible for >5% of the observed gamma-coincident neutrinos in the track data at 90% confidence. Applying our analysis to the unscrambled data reveals no individual nu + gamma events of high significance; two ANTARES track + Fermi gamma-ray events are identified that exceed a once per decade false alarm rate threshold (p = 17%). No evidence for subthreshold nu + gamma source populations is found among the track (p = 39%) or cascade (p = 60%) events. Exploring a possible correlation of high-energy neutrino directions with Fermi gamma-ray sky brightness identified in previous work yields no added support for this correlation. While TXS.0506+056, a blazar and variable (nontransient) Fermi gamma-ray source, has recently been identified as the first source of high-energy neutrinos, the challenges in reconciling observations of the Fermi gamma-ray sky, the IceCube high-energy cosmic neutrinos, and ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays using only blazars suggest a significant contribution by other source populations. Searches for transient sources of high-energy neutrinos thus remain interesting, with the potential for either neutrino clustering or multimessenger coincidence searches to lead to discovery of the first nu + gamma transients.

Abstract: The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations.

Abstract: We propose a novel statistical method to extend Fermi-LAT catalogues of highlatitude -y-ray sources below their nominal threshold. To do so, we rely on the determination of the differential source -count distribution of sub -threshold sources which only provides the statistical flux distribution of faint sources. By simulating ensembles of synthetic skies, we assess quantitatively the likelihood for pixels in the sky with relatively low -test statistics to be due to sources, therefore complementing the source -count distribution with spatial information. Besides being useful to orient efforts towards multi -messenger and multi -wavelength identification of new -y-ray sources, we expect the results to be especially advantageous for statistical applications such as cross -correlation analyses.