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Conde, D., Castillo, F. L., Escobar, C., García, C., Garcia Navarro, J. E., Sanz, V., et al. (2023). Forecasting Geomagnetic Storm Disturbances and Their Uncertainties Using Deep Learning. Space Weather, 21(11), e2023SW003474–27pp.
Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Measurement of the production cross section for W-bosons in association with jets in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector. Phys. Lett. B, 698(5), 325–345.
Abstract: This Letter reports on a first measurement of the inclusive W + jets cross section in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV at the LHC, with the ATLAS detector. Cross sections, in both the electron and muon decay modes of the W-boson, are presented as a function of jet multiplicity and of the transverse momentum of the leading and next-to-leading jets in the event. Measurements are also presented of the ratio of cross sections sigma (W + >= n)/sigma(W + >= n – 1) for inclusive jet multiplicities n = 1-4. The results, based on an integrated luminosity of 1.3 pb(-1), have been corrected for all known detector effects and are quoted in a limited and well-defined range of jet and lepton kinematics. The measured cross sections are compared to particle-level predictions based on perturbative QCD. Next-to-leading order calculations, studied here for n <= 2, are found in good agreement with the data. Leading-order multiparton event generators, normalized to the NNLO total cross section, describe the data well for all measured jet multiplicities.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Search for massive long-lived highly ionising particles with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Phys. Lett. B, 698(5), 353–370.
Abstract: A search is made for massive highly ionising particles with lifetimes in excess of 100 ns, with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, using 3.1 pb(-1) of pp collision data taken at root s = 7 TeV. The signature of energy loss in the ATLAS inner detector and electromagnetic calorimeter is used. No such particles are found and limits on the production cross section for electric charges 6e <= vertical bar q vertical bar <= 17e and masses 200 GeV <= m <= 1000 GeV are set in the range 1-12 pb for different hypotheses on the production mechanism.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Measurement of the centrality dependence of J/psi yields and observation of Z production in lead-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Phys. Lett. B, 697(4), 294–312.
Abstract: Using the ATLAS detector, a centrality-dependent suppression has been observed in the yield of J/psi mesons produced in the collisions of lead ions at the Large Hadron Collider. In a sample of minimum-bias lead-lead collisions at a nucleon-nucleon centre of mass energy root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 6.7 μb(-1), J/psi mesons are reconstructed via their decays to mu(+)mu(-) pairs. The measured J/psi yield, normalized to the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions, is found to significantly decrease from peripheral to central collisions. The centrality dependence is found to be qualitatively similar to the trends observed at previous, lower energy experiments. The same sample is used to reconstruct Z bosons in the mu(+)mu(-) final state, and a total of 38 candidates are selected in the mass window of 66 to 116 GeV. The relative Z yields as a function of centrality are also presented, although no conclusion can be inferred about their scaling with the number of binary collisions, because of limited statistics. This analysis provides the first results on J/psi and Z production in lead-lead collisions at the LHC.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Search for quark contact interactions in dijet angular distributions in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV measured with the ATLAS detector. Phys. Lett. B, 694(4-5), 327–345.
Abstract: Dijet angular distributions from the first LHC pp collisions at center-of-mass energy root s = 7 TeV have been measured with the ATLAS detector. The dataset used for this analysis represents an integrated luminosity of 3.1 pb(-1). Dijet chi distributions and centrality ratios have been measured up to dijet masses of 2.8 TeV, and found to be in good agreement with Standard Model predictions. Analysis of the chi distributions excludes quark contact interactions with a compositeness scale Lambda below 3.4 TeV, at 95% confidence level, significantly exceeding previous limits.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2010). Charged-particle multiplicities in pp interactions at root s=900 GeV measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Phys. Lett. B, 688(1), 21–42.
Abstract: The first measurements from proton-proton collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are presented. Data were collected in December 2009 using a minimum-bias trigger during collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 900 GeV. The charged-particle multiplicity, its dependence on transverse momentum and pseudorapidity, and the relationship between mean transverse momentum and charged-particle multiplicity are measured for events with at least one charged particle in the kinematic range vertical bar eta vertical bar < 2.5 and p(T) > 500 MeV. The measurements are compared to Monte Carlo models of proton-proton collisions and to results from other experiments at the same centre-of-mass energy. The charged-particle multiplicity per event and unit of pseudorapidity eta = 0 is measured to be 1.333 +/- 0.003(stat.) +/- 0.040(syst.), which is 5-15% higher than the Monte Carlo models predict.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Search for squarks and gluinos using final states with jets and missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS detector in root s=7 TeV proton-proton collisions. Phys. Lett. B, 701(2), 186–203.
Abstract: A search for squarks and gluinos in final states containing jets, missing transverse momentum and no electrons or muons is presented. The data were recorded by the ATLAS experiment in root s = 7 TeV proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. No excess above the Standard Model background expectation was observed in 35 pb(-1) of analysed data. Gluino masses below 500 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level in simplified models containing only squarks of the first two generations, a gluino octet and a massless neutralino. The exclusion increases to 870 GeV for equal mass squarks and gluinos. In MSUGRA/CMSSM models with tan beta = 3, A(0) = 0 and μ> 0, squarks and gluinos of equal mass are excluded below 775 GeV. These are the most stringent limits to date.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Search for supersymmetry in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV in final states with missing transverse momentum and b-jets. Phys. Lett. B, 701(4), 398–416.
Abstract: Results are presented of a search for supersymmetric particles in events with large missing transverse momentum and at least one heavy flavour jet candidate in root s = 7 TeV proton proton collisions. In a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35 pb(-1) recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, no significant excess is observed with respect to the prediction for Standard Model processes. For R-parity conserving models in which sbottoms (stops) are the only squarks to appear in the gluino decay cascade, gluino masses below 590 GeV (520 GeV) are excluded at the 95% C.L. The results are also interpreted in an MSUGRA/CMSSM supersymmetry breaking scenario with tan beta = 40 and in an SO(10) model framework.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Search for stable hadronising squarks and gluinos with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. Phys. Lett. B, 701(1), 1–19.
Abstract: Hitherto unobserved long-lived massive particles with electric and/or colour charge are predicted by a range of theories which extend the Standard Model. In this Letter a search is performed at the ATLAS experiment for slow-moving charged particles produced in proton-proton collisions at 7 TeV centre-of-mass energy at the LHC, using a data-set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb(-1). No deviations from Standard Model expectations are found. This result is interpreted in a framework of supersymmetry models in which coloured sparticles can hadronise into long-lived bound hadronic states, termed R-hadrons, and 95% CL limits are set on the production cross-sections of squarks and gluinos. The influence of R-hadron interactions in matter was studied using a number of different models, and lower mass limits for stable sbottoms and stops are found to be 294 and 309 GeV respectively. The lower mass limit for a stable gluino lies in the range from 562 to 586 GeV depending on the model assumed. Each of these constraints is the most stringent to date.
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ATLAS Collaboration(Aad, G. et al), Amoros, G., Cabrera Urban, S., Castillo Gimenez, V., Costa, M. J., Escobar, C., et al. (2011). Measurement of the W charge asymmetry in the W -> mu nu decay mode in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector. Phys. Lett. B, 701(1), 31–49.
Abstract: This Letter reports a measurement of the muon charge asymmetry from W bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. The asymmetry is measured in the W -> μnu decay mode as a function of the muon pseudorapidity using a data sample corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 31 pb(-1). The results are compared to predictions based on next-to-leading order calculations with various parton distribution functions. This measurement provides information on the u and d quark momentum fractions in the proton.
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