Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.

Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.

Abstract: We consider supersymmetric models in which sneutrinos are viable dark matter candidates. These are either simple extensions of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with additional singlet superfields, such as the inverse or linear seesaw, or a model with an additional U(1) group. All of these models can accomodate the observed small neutrino masses and large mixings. We investigate the properties of sneutrinos as dark matter candidates in these scenarios. We check for phenomenological bounds, such as correct relic abundance, consistency with direct detection cross section limits and laboratory constraints, among others lepton flavour violating (LFV) charged lepton decays. While inverse and linear seesaw lead to different results for LFV, both models have very similar dark matter phenomenology, consistent with all experimental bounds. The extended gauge model shows some additional and peculiar features due to the presence of an extra gauge boson Z' and an additional light Higgs. Specifically, we point out that for sneutrino LSPs there is a strong constraint on the mass of the Z' due to the experimental bounds on the direct detection scattering cross section.

Abstract: We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach. This negative chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino gets essentially fixed around 1TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is at similar to 2 sigma off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future dark matter experiments are quite high.

Abstract: The results of a search for pair production of supersymmetric partners of the Standard Model third-generation quarks are reported. This search uses 20.1 fb(-1) of pp collisions at root s = 8 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The lightest bottom and top squarks ((b) over tilde (1) and (t) over tilde (1) respectively) are searched for in a final state with large missing transverse momentum and two jets identified as originating from b-quarks. No excess of events above the expected level of Standard Model background is found. The results are used to set upper limits on the visible cross section for processes beyond the Standard Model. Exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level on the masses of the third-generation squarks are derived in phenomenological supersymmetric R-parity-conserving models in which either the bottom or the top squark is the lightest squark. The (b) over tilde (1) is assumed to decay via (b) over tilde (1) -> b (chi) over tilde (0)(1) and the (t) over tilde (1) via (t) over tilde (1) b (chi) over tilde (+/-)(1), with undetectable products of the subsequent decay of the (chi) over tilde (+/-)(1) due to the small mass splitting between the (chi) over tilde (+/-)(1) and the (chi) over tilde (0)(1)