|
|
Trotta, R., Johannesson, G., Moskalenko, I. V., Porter, T. A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Strong, A. W. (2011). Constraints on Cosmic-Ray Propagation Models from a Global Bayesian Analysis. Astrophys. J., 729(2), 106–16pp.
Abstract: Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.
|
|
|
|
Johannesson, G., Ruiz de Austri, R., Vincent, A. C., Moskalenko, I. V., Orlando, E., Porter, T. A., et al. (2016). Bayesian analysis of cosmic-ray propagation: evidence against homogeneous diffusion. Astrophys. J., 824(1), 16–19pp.
Abstract: We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, (p) over bar and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p, (p) over bar, and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and Be-10/Be-9 secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update.
|
|
|
|
Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strege, C., & Trotta, R. (2012). Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 01(1), 015–23pp.
Abstract: We present updated global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including the most recent constraints from the ATLAS and CMS detectors at the LHC, as well as the most recent results of the XENON100 experiment. Our robust analysis takes into account both astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter in the calculation of the rate of WIMP-induced recoils in direct detection experiment. We study the consequences for neutralino Dark Matter, and show that current direct detection data already allow to robustly rule out the so-called Focus Point region, therefore demonstrating the importance of particle astrophysics experiments in constraining extensions of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. We also observe an increased compatibility between results obtained from a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical perspective. We find that upcoming ton-scale direct detection experiments will probe essentially the entire currently favoured region (at the 99% level), almost independently of the statistical approach used. Prospects for indirect detection of the cMSSM are further reduced.
|
|
|
|
Bertone, G., Cumberbatch, D., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2012). Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 01(1), 004–24pp.
Abstract: The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the “Nightmare scenario” of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity at 14TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as similar or equal to 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.
|
|
|
|
Strege, C., Bertone, G., Cerdeño, D. G., Fornasa, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2012). Updated global fits of the cMSSM including the latest LHC SUSY and Higgs searches and XENON100 data. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 03(3), 030–22pp.
Abstract: We present new global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including LHC 1/fb integrated luminosity SUSY exclusion limits, recent LHC 5/fb constraints on the mass of the Higgs boson and XENON100 direct detection data. Our analysis fully takes into account astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter the analysis when translating direct detection limits into constraints on the cMSSM parameter space. We provide results for both a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical analysis. We find that LHC 2011 constraints in combination with XENON100 data can rule out a significant portion of the cMSSM parameter space. Our results further emphasise the complementarity of collider experiments and direct detection searches in constraining extensions of Standard Model physics. The LHC 2011 exclusion limit strongly impacts on low-mass regions of cMSSM parameter space, such as the stau co-annihilation region, while direct detection data can rule out regions of high SUSY masses, such as the Focus-Point region, which is unreachable for the LHC in the near future. We show that, in addition to XENON100 data, the experimental constraint on the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon plays a dominant role in disfavouring large scalar and gaugino masses. We find that, should the LHC 2011 excess hinting towards a Higgs boson at 126 GeV be confirmed, currently favoured regions of the cMSSM parameter space will be robustly ruled out from both a Bayesian and a profile likelihood statistical perspective.
|
|
|
|
Strege, C., Bertone, G., Feroz, F., Fornasa, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2013). Global fits of the cMSSM and NUHM including the LHC Higgs discovery and new XENON100 constraints. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 04(4), 013–40pp.
Abstract: We present global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM) and the Non-Universal Higgs Model (NUHM), including the most recent CMS constraint on the Higgs boson mass, 5.8 fb(-1) integrated luminosity null Supersymmetry searches by ATLAS, the new LHCb measurement of B R ((B) over bar (s) -> mu(+) mu(-)) and the 7-year WMAP dark matter relic abundance determination. We include the latest dark matter constraints from the XENON100 experiment, marginalising over astrophysical and particle physics uncertainties. We present Bayesian posterior and profile likelihood maps of the highest resolution available today, obtained from up to 350M points. We find that the new constraint on the Higgs boson mass has a dramatic impact, ruling out large regions of previously favoured cMSSM and NUHM parameter space. In the cMSSM, light sparticles and predominantly gaugino-like dark matter with a mass of a few hundred GeV are favoured. The NUHM exhibits a strong preference for heavier sparticle masses and a Higgsino-like neutralino with a mass of 1 TeV. The future ton-scale XENON1T direct detection experiment will probe large portions of the currently favoured cMSSM and NUHM parameter space. The LHC operating at 14 TeV collision energy will explore the favoured regions in the cMSSM, while most of the regions favoured in the NUHM will remain inaccessible. Our best-fit points achieve a satisfactory quality-of-fit, with p-values ranging from 0.21 to 0.35, so that none of the two models studied can be presently excluded at any meaningful significance level.
|
|
|
|
Bertone, G., Calore, F., Caron, S., Ruiz de Austri, R., Kim, J. S., Trotta, R., et al. (2016). Global analysis of the pMSSM in light of the Fermi GeV excess: prospects for the LHC Run-II and astroparticle experiments. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 04(4), 037–20pp.
Abstract: We present a new global fit of the 19-dimensional phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (pMSSM-19) that complies with all the latest experimental results from dark matter indirect, direct and accelerator dark matter searches. We show that the model provides a satisfactory explanation of the excess of gamma rays from the Galactic centre observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope, assuming that it is produced by the annihilation of neutralinos in the Milky Way halo. We identify two regions that pass all the constraints: the first corresponds to neutralinos with a mass similar to 80 – 100 GeV annihilating into WW with a branching ratio of 95%; the second to heavier neutralinos, with mass similar to 180 – 200 GeV annihilating into (l) over barl with a branching ratio of 87%. We show that neutralinos compatible with the Galactic centre GeV excess will soon be within the reach of LHC run-II – notably through searches for charginos and neutralinos, squarks and light smuons – and of Xenon1T, thanks to its unprecedented sensitivity to spin-dependent cross-section off neutrons.
|
|
|
|
Bridges, M., Cranmer, K., Feroz, F., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). A coverage study of the CMSSM based on ATLAS sensitivity using fast neural networks techniques. J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 012–23pp.
Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.
|
|
|
|
Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
|
|
|
|
Strege, C., Bertone, G., Besjes, G. J., Caron, S., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strubig, A., et al. (2014). Profile likelihood maps of a 15-dimensional MSSM. J. High Energy Phys., 09(9), 081–59pp.
Abstract: We present statistically convergent profile likelihood maps obtained via global fits of a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with 15 free parameters (the MSSM-15), based on over 250M points. We derive constraints on the model parameters from direct detection limits on dark matter, the Planck relic density measurement and data from accelerator searches. We provide a detailed analysis of the rich phenomenology of this model, and determine the SUSY mass spectrum and dark matter properties that are preferred by current experimental constraints. We evaluate the impact of the measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon (g – 2) on our results, and provide an analysis of scenarios in which the lightest neutralino is a subdominant component of the dark matter. The MSSM-15 parameters are relatively weakly constrained by current data sets, with the exception of the parameters related to dark matter phenomenology (M-1, M-2, mu), which are restricted to the sub-TeV regime, mainly due to the relic density constraint. The mass of the lightest neutralino is found to be < 1.5TeV at 99% C.L., but can extend up to 3 TeV when excluding the g – 2 constraint from the analysis. Low-mass bino-like neutralinos are strongly favoured, with spin-independent scattering cross-sections extending to very small values, similar to 10(-20) pb. ATLAS SUSY null searches strongly impact on this mass range, and thus rule out a region of parameter space that is outside the reach of any current or future direct detection experiment. The best-fit point obtained after inclusion of all data corresponds to a squark mass of 2.3 TeV, a gluino mass of 2.1 TeV and a 130 GeV neutralino with a spin-independent cross-section of 2.4 x 10(-10) pb, which is within the reach of future multi-ton scale direct detection experiments and of the upcoming LHC run at increased centre-of-mass energy.
|
|
