Abstract: Neutral particles capable of travelling cosmic distances from a source to detectors on Earth are limited to photons and neutrinos. Examination of the Dark Matter annihilation/decay spectra for these particles reveals the presence of continuum spectra (e.g. due to fragmentation and W or Z decay) and peaks (due to direct annihilations/decays). However, when one explores extensions of the Standard Model (BSM), unexplored spectra emerge that differ significantly from those of the Standard Model (SM) for both neutrinos and photons. In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of important spectra that include peaks as well as previously largely unexplored entities such as boxes and combinations of box, peak and continuum decay spectra.

Abstract: We present an efficient method of reconstructing the parameters of the constrained MSSM from assumed future LHC data, applied both on their own right and in combination with the cosmological determination of the relic dark matter abundance. Focusing on the ATLAS SU3 benchmark point, we demonstrate that our simple Gaussian approximation can recover the values of its parameters remarkably well. We examine two popular noninformative priors and obtain very similar results, although when we use an informative, naturalness-motivated prior, we find some sizeable differences. We show that a further strong improvement in reconstructing the SU3 parameters can by achieved by applying additional information about the relic abundance at the level of WMAP accuracy, although the expected data from Planck will have only a very limited additional impact. Further external data may be required to break some remaining degeneracies. We argue that the method presented here is applicable to a wide class of low-energy effective supersymmetric models, as it does not require one to deal with purely experimental issues, e.g., detector performance, and has the additional advantages of computational efficiency. Furthermore, our approach allows one to distinguish the effect of the model's internal structure and of the external data on the final parameters constraints.

Abstract: Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.

Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: The μnu SSM provides a solution to the mu-problem of the MSSM and explains the origin of neutrino masses by simply using right-handed neutrino superfields. Given that R-parity is broken in this model, the gravitino is a natural candidate for dark matter since its lifetime becomes much longer than the age of the Universe. We consider the implications of gravitino dark matter in the μnu SSM, analyzing in particular the prospects for detecting gamma rays from decaying gravitinos. If the gravitino explains the whole dark matter component, a gravitino mass larger than 20 GeV is disfavored by the isotropic diffuse photon background measurements. On the other hand, a gravitino with a mass range between 0.1 – 20 GeV gives rise to a signal that might be observed by the FERMI satellite. In this way important regions of the parameter space of the μnu SSM can be checked.