Caron, S., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Zhang, Z. Y. (2023). Mixture-of-Theories training: can we find new physics and anomalies better by mixing physical theories? J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 004–37pp.
Abstract: Model-independent search strategies have been increasingly proposed in recent years because on the one hand there has been no clear signal for new physics and on the other hand there is a lack of a highly probable and parameter-free extension of the standard model. For these reasons, there is no simple search target so far. In this work, we try to take a new direction and ask the question: bearing in mind that we have a large number of new physics theories that go beyond the Standard Model and may contain a grain of truth, can we improve our search strategy for unknown signals by using them “in combination”? In particular, we show that a signal hypothesis based on a large, intermingled set of many different theoretical signal models can be a superior approach to find an unknown BSM signal. Applied to a recent data challenge, we show that “mixture-of-theories training” outperforms strategies that optimize signal regions with a single BSM model as well as most unsupervised strategies. Applications of this work include anomaly detection and the definition of signal regions in the search for signals of new physics.
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Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
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Cabrera, M. E., Casas, J. A., & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2013). The health of SUSY after the Higgs discovery and the XENON100 data. J. High Energy Phys., 07(7), 182–47pp.
Abstract: We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach. This negative chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino gets essentially fixed around 1TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is at similar to 2 sigma off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future dark matter experiments are quite high.
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Strege, C., Bertone, G., Besjes, G. J., Caron, S., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strubig, A., et al. (2014). Profile likelihood maps of a 15-dimensional MSSM. J. High Energy Phys., 09(9), 081–59pp.
Abstract: We present statistically convergent profile likelihood maps obtained via global fits of a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with 15 free parameters (the MSSM-15), based on over 250M points. We derive constraints on the model parameters from direct detection limits on dark matter, the Planck relic density measurement and data from accelerator searches. We provide a detailed analysis of the rich phenomenology of this model, and determine the SUSY mass spectrum and dark matter properties that are preferred by current experimental constraints. We evaluate the impact of the measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon (g – 2) on our results, and provide an analysis of scenarios in which the lightest neutralino is a subdominant component of the dark matter. The MSSM-15 parameters are relatively weakly constrained by current data sets, with the exception of the parameters related to dark matter phenomenology (M-1, M-2, mu), which are restricted to the sub-TeV regime, mainly due to the relic density constraint. The mass of the lightest neutralino is found to be < 1.5TeV at 99% C.L., but can extend up to 3 TeV when excluding the g – 2 constraint from the analysis. Low-mass bino-like neutralinos are strongly favoured, with spin-independent scattering cross-sections extending to very small values, similar to 10(-20) pb. ATLAS SUSY null searches strongly impact on this mass range, and thus rule out a region of parameter space that is outside the reach of any current or future direct detection experiment. The best-fit point obtained after inclusion of all data corresponds to a squark mass of 2.3 TeV, a gluino mass of 2.1 TeV and a 130 GeV neutralino with a spin-independent cross-section of 2.4 x 10(-10) pb, which is within the reach of future multi-ton scale direct detection experiments and of the upcoming LHC run at increased centre-of-mass energy.
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Ghosh, P., Lopez-Fogliani, D. E., Mitsou, V. A., Muñoz, C., & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2014). Probing the μnu SSM with light scalars, pseudoscalars and neutralinos from the decay of a SM-like Higgs boson at the LHC. J. High Energy Phys., 11(11), 102–57pp.
Abstract: The “mu from nu” supersymmetric standard model (mu nu SSM) can accommodate the newly discovered Higgs-like scalar boson with a mass around 125GeV. This model provides a solution to the mu-problem and simultaneously reproduces correct neutrino physics by the simple use of right-handed neutrino superfields. These new superfields together with the introduced R-parity violation can produce novel and characteristic signatures of the μnu SSM at the LHC. We explore the signatures produced through two-body Higgs decays into the new states, provided that these states lie below in the mass spectrum. For example, a pair produced light neutralinos depending on the associated decay length can give rise to displaced multi-leptons/taus/jets/photons with small/moderate missing transverse energy. In the same spirit, a Higgs-like scalar decaying to a pair of scalars/pseudoscalars can produce final states with prompt multi-leptons/taus/jets/photons.
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