Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: Instanton solutions of non-abelian Yang-Mills theories generate an effective action that may induce lepton and baryon number violations, namely Delta B = Delta L = nf, being nf the number of families coupled to the gauge group. In this article we study instanton mediated processes in a SU( 2)(l)circle times SU(2)(h)circle times U(1) extension of the Standard Model that breaks universality by singularizing the third family. In the construction of the instanton Green functions we account systematically for the inter-family mixing. This allows us to use the experimental bounds on proton decay in order to constrain the gauge coupling of SU(2)(h). Tau lepton non-leptonic and radiative decays with Delta B = Delta L = 1 are also analysed.

Abstract: We analyse the possible presence of New Physics (NP) in the Flavour Sector and evaluate its potential for solving the tension between the experimental values of A(J/Psi KS) and Br(B+ -> tau(+)v(tau)) with respect to the Standard Model (SM) expectations. Updated model independent analyses, where NP contributions are allowed in B-d(0) – (B) over bar (0)(d) and B-s(0) – (B) over bar (0)(s) transitions, suggest the need of New Physics in the bd sector. A detailed analysis of recent Flavour data is then presented in the framework of a simple extension of the SM, where a Q = 2/3 vector-like isosinglet quark is added to the spectrum of the SM. Special emphasis is given to the implications of this model for correlations among various measurable quantities. We include constraints from all the relevant quark flavour sectors and give precise predictions for selected rare processes. We find important deviations from the SM in observables in the bd sector like the semileptonic asymmetry A(SL)(d), B-d(0) -> mu(+)mu(-) and A(SL)(s) – A(SL)(d). Other potential places where NP can show up include A(J/Psi Phi), gamma, K-L(0) -> pi(0)v (v) over bar, t -> Zq and D-0 -> mu(+)mu(-) among others. The experimental data favours in this model the existence of an up vector-like quark with a mass below 600(1000) GeV at 1(2) sigma.