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Bernal, N., Forero-Romero, J. E., Garani, R., & Palomares-Ruiz, S. (2014). Systematic uncertainties from halo asphericity in dark matter searches. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 09(9), 004–30pp.
Abstract: Although commonly assumed to be spherical, dark matter halos are predicted to be non-spherical by N-body simulations and their asphericity has a potential impact on the systematic uncertainties in dark matter searches. The evaluation of these uncertainties is the main aim of this work, where we study the impact of aspherical dark matter density distributions in Milky-Way-like halos on direct and indirect searches. Using data from the large N-body cosmological simulation Bolshoi, we perform a statistical analysis and quantify the systematic uncertainties on the determination of local dark matter density and the so-called J factors for dark matter annihilations and decays from the galactic center. We find that, due to our ignorance about the extent of the non-sphericity of the Milky Way dark matter halo, systematic uncertainties can be as large as 35%, within the 95% most probable region, for a spherically averaged value for the local density of 0.3-0.4 GeV/cm(3). Similarly, systematic uncertainties on the J factors evaluated around the galactic center can be as large as 10% and 15%, within the 95% most probable region, for dark matter annihilations and decays, respectively.
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Caron, S., Eckner, C., Hendriks, L., Johannesson, G., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Zaharijas, G. (2023). Mind the gap: the discrepancy between simulation and reality drives interpretations of the Galactic Center Excess. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 06(6), 013–56pp.
Abstract: The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations.
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Moline, A., Schewtschenko, J. A., Palomares-Ruiz, S., Boehm, C., & Baugh, C. M. (2016). Isotropic extragalactic flux from dark matter annihilations: lessons from interacting dark matter scenarios. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 08(8), 069–23pp.
Abstract: The extragalactic gamma-ray and neutrino emission may have a contribution from dark matter (DM) annihilations. In the case of discrepancies between observations and standard predictions, one could infer the DM pair annihilation cross section into cosmic rays by studying the shape of the energy spectrum. So far all analyses of the extragalactic DM signal have assumed the standard cosmological model (ACDM) as the underlying theory. However, there are alternative DM scenarios where the number of low-mass objects is significantly suppressed. Therefore the characteristics of the gamma-ray and neutrino emission in these models may differ from ACDM as a result. Here we show that the extragalactic isotropic signal in these alternative models has a similar energy dependence to that in ACDM, but the overall normalisation is reduced. The similarities between the energy spectra combined with the flux suppression could lead one to misinterpret possible evidence for models beyond ACDM as being due to CDM particles annihilating with a much weaker cross section than expected.
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Amoroso, S., Caron, S., Jueid, A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Skands, P. (2019). Estimating QCD uncertainties in Monte Carlo event generators for gamma-ray dark matter searches. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 05(5), 007–44pp.
Abstract: Motivated by the recent galactic center gamma-ray excess identified in the Fermi-LAT data, we perform a detailed study of QCD fragmentation uncertainties in the modeling of the energy spectra of gamma-rays from Dark-Matter (DM) annihilation. When Dark-Matter particles annihilate to coloured final states, either directly or via decays such as W(*) -> qq-', photons are produced from a complex sequence of shower, hadronisation and hadron decays. In phenomenological studies their energy spectra are typically computed using Monte Carlo event generators. These results have however intrinsic uncertainties due to the specific model used and the choice of model parameters, which are difficult to asses and which are typically neglected. We derive a new set of hadronisation parameters (tunes) for the PYTHIA 8.2 Monte Carlo generator from a fit to LEP and SLD data at the Z peak. For the first time we also derive a conservative set of uncertainties on the shower and hadronisation model parameters. Their impact on the gamma-ray energy spectra is evaluated and discussed for a range of DM masses and annihilation channels. The spectra and their uncertainties are also provided in tabulated form for future use. The fragmentation-parameter uncertainties may be useful for collider studies as well.
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Balaudo, A., Calore, F., De Romeri, V., & Donato, F. (2024). NAJADS: a self-contained framework for the direct determination of astrophysical J-factors. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 02(2), 001–33pp.
Abstract: Cosmological simulations play a pivotal role in understanding the properties of the dark matter (DM) distribution in both galactic and galaxy -cluster environments. The characterization of DM structures is crucial for informing indirect DM searches, aiming at the detection of the annihilation (or decay) products of DM particles. A fundamental quantity in these analyses is the astrophysical J -factor. In the DM phenomenology community, J -factors are typically computed through the semi -analytical modelling of the DM mass distribution, which is affected by large uncertainties. With the scope of addressing and possibly reducing these uncertainties, we present NAJADS, a self-contained framework to derive the DM J -factor directly from the raw simulations data. We show how this framework can be used to compute all -sky maps of the J -factor, automatically accounting for the complex 3D structure of the simulated halos and for the boosting of the signal due to the density fluctuations along the line of sight. After validating our code, we present a proof -of -concept application of NAJADS to a realistic halo from the IllustrisTNG suite, and exploit it to make a thorough comparison between our numerical approach and traditional semi -analytical methods. JCAP02(2024)001
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