Di Valentino, E. et al, & Mena, O. (2021). Snowmass2021-Letter of interest cosmology intertwined II: The hubble constant tension. Astropart Phys., 131, 102605–8pp.
Abstract: The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard A Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, which has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity, a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in part the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the 4.4 sigma – tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant H-0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H-0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting models of new physics that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial.
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Di Valentino, E. et al, & Mena, O. (2021). Snowmass2021-Letter of interest cosmology intertwined IV: The age of the universe and its curvature. Astropart Phys., 131, 102607–5pp.
Abstract: A precise measurement of the curvature of the Universe is of prime importance for cosmology since it could not only confirm the paradigm of primordial inflation but also help in discriminating between different early-Universe scenarios. Recent observations, while broadly consistent with a spatially flat standard A Cold Dark Matter (ACDM) model, show tensions that still allow (and, in some cases, even suggest) a few percent deviations from a flat universe. In particular, the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra, assuming the nominal likelihood, prefer a closed universe at more than 99% confidence level. While new physics could be at play, this anomaly may be the result of an unresolved systematic error or just a statistical fluctuation. However, since positive curvature allows a larger age of the Universe, an accurate determination of the age of the oldest objects provides a smoking gun in confirming or falsifying the current flat ACDM model.
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Di Valentino, E. et al, & Mena, O. (2021). Snowmass2021-Letter of interest cosmology intertwined I: Perspectives for the next decade. Astropart Phys., 131, 102606–4pp.
Abstract: The standard Lambda Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides an amazing description of a wide range of astrophysical and astronomical data. However, there are a few big open questions, that make the standard model look like a first-order approximation to a more realistic scenario that still needs to be fully understood. In this Letter of Interest we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances present between the different cosmological probes, as the Hubble constant H-0 value, the sigma S-8(8) tension, and the anomalies present in the Planck results. Finally, we will give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space-missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these questions.
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Herrero-Garcia, J., Patrick, R., & Scaffidi, A. (2022). A semi-supervised approach to dark matter searches in direct detection data with machine learning. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 02, 039–19pp.
Abstract: The dark matter sector remains completely unknown. It is therefore crucial to keep an open mind regarding its nature and possible interactions. Focusing on the case of Weakly Interacting Massive Particles, in this work we make this general philosophy more concrete by applying modern machine learning techniques to dark matter direct detection. We do this by encoding and decoding the graphical representation of background events in the XENONnT experiment with a convolutional variational autoencoder. We describe a methodology that utilizes the `anomaly score' derived from the reconstruction loss of the convolutional variational autoencoder as well as a pre-trained standard convolutional neural network, in a semi-supervised fashion. Indeed, we observe that optimum results are obtained only when both unsupervised and supervised anomaly scores are considered together. A data set that has a higher proportion of anomaly score is deemed anomalous and deserves further investigation. Contrary to classical analyses, in principle all information about the events is used, preventing unnecessary information loss. Lastly, we demonstrate the reach of learning-focused anomaly detection in this context by comparing results with classical inference, observing that, if tuned properly, these techniques have the potential to outperform likelihood-based methods.
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Babak, S., Caprini, C., Figueroa, D. G., Karnesis, N., Marcoccia, P., Nardini, G., et al. (2023). Stochastic gravitational wave background from stellar origin binary black holes in LISA. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 08(8), 034–37pp.
Abstract: We use the latest constraints on the population of stellar origin binary black holes (SOBBH) from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) observations, to estimate the stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) they generate in the frequency band of LISA. In order to account for the faint and distant binaries, which contribute the most to the SGWB, we extend the merger rate at high redshift assuming that it tracks the star formation rate. We adopt different methods to compute the SGWB signal: we perform an analytical evaluation, we use Monte Carlo sums over the SOBBH population realisations, and we account for the role of the detector by simulating LISA data and iteratively removing the resolvable signals until only the confusion noise is left. The last method allows the extraction of both the expected SGWB and the number of resolvable SOBBHs. Since the latter are few for signal-to-noise ratio thresholds larger than five, we confirm that the spectral shape of the SGWB in the LISA band agrees with the analytical prediction of a single power law. We infer the probability distribution of the SGWB amplitude from the LVK GWTC-3 posterior of the binary population model: at the reference frequency of 0.003 Hz it has an interquartile range of h2ΩGW(f = 3 × 10-3 Hz) ∈ [5.65, 11.5] × 10-13, in agreement with most previous estimates. We then perform a MC analysis to assess LISA's capability to detect and characterise this signal. Accounting for both the instrumental noise and the galactic binaries foreground, with four years of data, LISA will be able to detect the SOBBH SGWB with percent accuracy, narrowing down the uncertainty on the amplitude by one order of magnitude with respect to the range of possible amplitudes inferred from the population model. A measurement of this signal by LISA will help to break the degeneracy among some of the population parameters, and provide interesting constraints, in particular on the redshift evolution of the SOBBH merger rate.
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