Abstract: We present a novel approach to derive constraints on neutrino masses, as well as on other cosmological parameters, from cosmological data, while taking into account our ignorance of the neutrino mass ordering. We derive constraints from a combination of current as well as future cosmological datasets on the total neutrino mass M-nu and on the mass fractions f(nu),i = m(i)/M-nu (where the index i = 1, 2, 3 indicates the three mass eigenstates) carried by each of the mass eigenstates m(i), after marginalizing over the (unknown) neutrino mass ordering, either normal ordering (NH) or inverted ordering (IH). The bounds on all the cosmological parameters, including those on the total neutrino mass, take therefore into account the uncertainty related to our ignorance of the mass hierarchy that is actually realized in nature. This novel approach is carried out in the framework of Bayesian analysis of a typical hierarchical problem, where the distribution of the parameters of the model depends on further parameters, the hyperparameters. In this context, the choice of the neutrino mass ordering is modeled via the discrete hyperparameter h(type), which we introduce in the usual Markov chain analysis. The preference from cosmological data for either the NH or the IH scenarios is then simply encoded in the posterior distribution of the hyper-parameter itself. Current cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements assign equal odds to the two hierarchies, and are thus unable to distinguish between them. However, after the addition of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, a weak preference for the normal hierarchical scenario appears, with odds of 4 : 3 from Planck temperature and large-scale polarization in combination with BAO (3 : 2 if small-scale polarization is also included). Concerning next-generation cosmological experiments, forecasts suggest that the combination of upcoming CMB (COrE) and BAO surveys (DESI) may determine the neutrino mass hierarchy at a high statistical significance if the mass is very close to the minimal value allowed by oscillation experiments, as for NH and a fiducial value of M-nu = 0.06 eV there is a 9 : 1 preference of normal versus inverted hierarchy. On the contrary, if the sum of the masses is of the order of 0.1 eV or larger, even future cosmological observations will be inconclusive. The innovative statistical strategy exploited here represents a very simple, efficient and robust tool to study the sensitivity of present and future cosmological data to the neutrino mass hierarchy, and a sound competitor to the standard Bayesian model comparison. The unbiased limit on M-nu we obtain is crucial for ongoing and planned neutrinoless double beta decay searches.

Abstract: We calculate the nucleon axial form factor up to the leading one-loop order in a covariant chiral effective field theory with the Delta(1232) resonance as an explicit degree of freedom. We fit the axial form factor to the latest lattice QCD data and pin down the relevant low-energy constants. The lattice QCD data, for various pion masses below 400 MeV, can be well described up to a momentum transfer of similar to 0.6 GeV. The Delta(1232) loops contribute significantly to this agreement. Furthermore, we extract the axial charge and radius based on the fitted values of the low-energy constants. The results are g(A) = 1.237(74) and < r(A)(2)> = 0.263(38) fm(2). The obtained coupling g(A) is consistent with the experimental value if the uncertainty is taken into account. The axial radius is below but in agreement with the recent extraction from neutrino quasielastic scattering data on deuterium, which has large error bars. Up to our current working accuracy, r(A) is predicted only at leading order, i.e., the one-loop level. A more precise determination might need terms of O(p(5)).