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Blanes-Selva, V., Ruiz-Garcia, V., Tortajada, S., Benedi, J. M., Valdivieso, B., & Garcia-Gomez, J. M. (2021). Design of 1-year mortality forecast at hospital admission: A machine learning approach. Health Inform. J., 27(1), 13pp.
Abstract: Palliative care is referred to a set of programs for patients that suffer life-limiting illnesses. These programs aim to maximize the quality of life (QoL) for the last stage of life. They are currently based on clinical evaluation of the risk of 1-year mortality. The main aim of this work is to develop and validate machine-learning-based models to predict the exitus of a patient within the next year using data gathered at hospital admission. Five machine-learning techniques were applied using a retrospective dataset. The evaluation was performed with five metrics computed by a resampling strategy: Accuracy, the area under the ROC curve, Specificity, Sensitivity, and the Balanced Error Rate. All models reported an AUC ROC from 0.857 to 0.91. Specifically, Gradient Boosting Classifier was the best model, producing an AUC ROC of 0.91, a sensitivity of 0.858, a specificity of 0.808, and a BER of 0.1687. Information from standard procedures at hospital admission combined with machine learning techniques produced models with competitive discriminative power. Our models reach the best results reported in the state of the art. These results demonstrate that they can be used as an accurate data-driven palliative care criteria inclusion.
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Kasieczka, G. et al, & Sanz, V. (2021). The LHC Olympics 2020: a community challenge for anomaly detection in high energy physics. Rep. Prog. Phys., 84(12), 124201–64pp.
Abstract: A new paradigm for data-driven, model-agnostic new physics searches at colliders is emerging, and aims to leverage recent breakthroughs in anomaly detection and machine learning. In order to develop and benchmark new anomaly detection methods within this framework, it is essential to have standard datasets. To this end, we have created the LHC Olympics 2020, a community challenge accompanied by a set of simulated collider events. Participants in these Olympics have developed their methods using an R&D dataset and then tested them on black boxes: datasets with an unknown anomaly (or not). Methods made use of modern machine learning tools and were based on unsupervised learning (autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, normalizing flows), weakly supervised learning, and semi-supervised learning. This paper will review the LHC Olympics 2020 challenge, including an overview of the competition, a description of methods deployed in the competition, lessons learned from the experience, and implications for data analyses with future datasets as well as future colliders.
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Caron, S., Eckner, C., Hendriks, L., Johannesson, G., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Zaharijas, G. (2023). Mind the gap: the discrepancy between simulation and reality drives interpretations of the Galactic Center Excess. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 06(6), 013–56pp.
Abstract: The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations.
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Amerio, A., Cuoco, A., & Fornengo, N. (2023). Extracting the gamma-ray source-count distribution below the Fermi-LAT detection limit with deep learning. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 09(9), 029–39pp.
Abstract: We reconstruct the extra-galactic gamma-ray source-count distribution, or dN/dS, of resolved and unresolved sources by adopting machine learning techniques. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network on synthetic 2-dimensional sky-maps, which are built by varying parameters of underlying source-counts models and incorporate the FermiLAT instrumental response functions. The trained neural network is then applied to the Fermi-LAT data, from which we estimate the source count distribution down to flux levels a factor of 50 below the Fermi-LAT threshold. We perform our analysis using 14 years of data collected in the (1, 10) GeV energy range. The results we obtain show a source count distribution which, in the resolved regime, is in excellent agreement with the one derived from cataloged sources, and then extends as dN/dS " S-2 in the unresolved regime, down to fluxes of 5 center dot 10-12 cm-2 s-1. The neural network architecture and the devised methodology have the flexibility to enable future analyses to study the energy dependence of the source-count distribution.
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