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Cabrera, M. E., Casas, J. A., & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2010). MSSM forecast for the LHC. J. High Energy Phys., 05(5), 043–48pp.
Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.
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Bridges, M., Cranmer, K., Feroz, F., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). A coverage study of the CMSSM based on ATLAS sensitivity using fast neural networks techniques. J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 012–23pp.
Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.
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Casas, J. A., Moreno, J. M., Rius, N., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Zaldivar, B. (2011). Fair scans of the seesaw. Consequences for predictions on LFV processes. J. High Energy Phys., 03(3), 034–22pp.
Abstract: We give a straightforward procedure to scan the seesaw parameter-space, using the common “R-parametrization”, in a complete way. This includes a very simple rule to incorporate the perturbativity requirement as a condition for the entries of the R-matrix. As a relevant application, we show that the somewhat propagated belief that BR(mu -> e, gamma) in supersymmetric seesaw models depends strongly on the value of theta(13) is an “optical effect” produced by incomplete scans, and does not hold after a careful analytical and numerical study. When the complete scan is done, BR(mu -> e, gamma) gets very insensitive to theta(13). This holds even if the right-handed neutrino masses are kept constant or under control (as is required for succesful leptogenesis). In most cases the values of BR(mu -> e, gamma) are larger than the experimental upper bound. Including (unflavoured) leptogenesis does not introduce any further dependence on theta(13), although decreases the typical value of BR(mu -> e, gamma).
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Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
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Fidalgo, J., Lopez-Fogliani, D. E., Muñoz, C., & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2011). The Higgs sector of the μnu SSM and collider physics. J. High Energy Phys., 10(10), 020–33pp.
Abstract: The μnu SSM is a supersymmetric standard model that accounts for light neutrino masses and solves the μproblem of the MSSM by simply using right-handed neutrino superfields. Since this mechanism breaks R-parity, a peculiar structure for the mass matrices is generated. The neutral Higgses are mixed with the right- and left-handed sneutrinos producing 8x8 neutral scalar mass matrices. We analyse the Higgs sector of the μnu SSM in detail, with special emphasis in possible signals at colliders. After studying in general the decays of the Higges, we focus on those processes that are genuine of the μnu SSM, and could serve to distinguish it form other supersymmetric models. In particular, we present viable benchmark points for LHC searches. For example, we find decays of a MSSM-like Higgs into two lightest neutralinos, with the latter decaying inside the detector leading to displaced vertices, and producing final states with 4 and 8 b-jets plus missing energy. Final states with leptons and missing energy are also found.
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Cabrera, M. E., Casas, J. A., Mitsou, V. A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Terron, J. (2012). Histogram comparison tools for the search of new physics at LHC. Application to the CMSSM. J. High Energy Phys., 04(4), 133–27pp.
Abstract: We propose a rigorous and effective way to compare experimental and theoretical histograms, incorporating the different sources of statistical and systematic uncertainties. This is a useful tool to extract as much information as possible from the comparison between experimental data with theoretical simulations, optimizing the chances of identifying New Physics at the LHC. We illustrate this by showing how a search in the CMSSM parameter space, using Bayesian techniques, can effectively find the correct values of the CMSSM parameters by comparing histograms of events with multijets + missing transverse momentum displayed in the effective-mass variable. The procedure is in fact very efficient to identify the true supersymmetric model, in the case supersymmetry is really there and accessible to the LHC.
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Cabrera, M. E., Casas, J. A., & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2013). The health of SUSY after the Higgs discovery and the XENON100 data. J. High Energy Phys., 07(7), 182–47pp.
Abstract: We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach. This negative chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino gets essentially fixed around 1TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is at similar to 2 sigma off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future dark matter experiments are quite high.
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TLEP Design Study Working Group(Bicer, M. et al), & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2014). First look at the physics case of TLEP. J. High Energy Phys., 01(1), 164–49pp.
Abstract: The discovery by the ATLAS and CMS experiments of a new boson with mass around 125 GeV and with measured properties compatible with those of a Standard-Model Higgs boson, coupled with the absence of discoveries of phenomena beyond the Standard Model at the TeV scale, has triggered interest in ideas for future Higgs factories. A new circular e(+)e(-) collider hosted in a 80 to 100 km tunnel, TLEP, is among the most attractive solutions proposed so far. It has a clean experimental environment, produces high luminosity for top-quark, Higgs boson, W and Z studies, accommodates multiple detectors, and can reach energies up to the threshold and beyond. It will enable measurements of the Higgs boson properties and of Electroweak Symmetry-Breaking (EWSB) parameters with unequalled precision, offering exploration of physics beyond the Standard Model in the multi-TeV range. Moreover, being the natural precursor of the VHE-LHC, a 100 TeV hadron machine in the same tunnel, it builds up a long-term vision for particle physics. Altogether, the combination of TLEP and the VHE-LHC offers, for a great cost effectiveness, the best precision and the best search reach of all options presently on the market. This paper presents a first appraisal of the salient features of the TLEP physics potential, to serve as a baseline for a more extensive design study.
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Strege, C., Bertone, G., Besjes, G. J., Caron, S., Ruiz de Austri, R., Strubig, A., et al. (2014). Profile likelihood maps of a 15-dimensional MSSM. J. High Energy Phys., 09(9), 081–59pp.
Abstract: We present statistically convergent profile likelihood maps obtained via global fits of a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with 15 free parameters (the MSSM-15), based on over 250M points. We derive constraints on the model parameters from direct detection limits on dark matter, the Planck relic density measurement and data from accelerator searches. We provide a detailed analysis of the rich phenomenology of this model, and determine the SUSY mass spectrum and dark matter properties that are preferred by current experimental constraints. We evaluate the impact of the measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon (g – 2) on our results, and provide an analysis of scenarios in which the lightest neutralino is a subdominant component of the dark matter. The MSSM-15 parameters are relatively weakly constrained by current data sets, with the exception of the parameters related to dark matter phenomenology (M-1, M-2, mu), which are restricted to the sub-TeV regime, mainly due to the relic density constraint. The mass of the lightest neutralino is found to be < 1.5TeV at 99% C.L., but can extend up to 3 TeV when excluding the g – 2 constraint from the analysis. Low-mass bino-like neutralinos are strongly favoured, with spin-independent scattering cross-sections extending to very small values, similar to 10(-20) pb. ATLAS SUSY null searches strongly impact on this mass range, and thus rule out a region of parameter space that is outside the reach of any current or future direct detection experiment. The best-fit point obtained after inclusion of all data corresponds to a squark mass of 2.3 TeV, a gluino mass of 2.1 TeV and a 130 GeV neutralino with a spin-independent cross-section of 2.4 x 10(-10) pb, which is within the reach of future multi-ton scale direct detection experiments and of the upcoming LHC run at increased centre-of-mass energy.
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Ghosh, P., Lopez-Fogliani, D. E., Mitsou, V. A., Muñoz, C., & Ruiz de Austri, R. (2014). Probing the μnu SSM with light scalars, pseudoscalars and neutralinos from the decay of a SM-like Higgs boson at the LHC. J. High Energy Phys., 11(11), 102–57pp.
Abstract: The “mu from nu” supersymmetric standard model (mu nu SSM) can accommodate the newly discovered Higgs-like scalar boson with a mass around 125GeV. This model provides a solution to the mu-problem and simultaneously reproduces correct neutrino physics by the simple use of right-handed neutrino superfields. These new superfields together with the introduced R-parity violation can produce novel and characteristic signatures of the μnu SSM at the LHC. We explore the signatures produced through two-body Higgs decays into the new states, provided that these states lie below in the mass spectrum. For example, a pair produced light neutralinos depending on the associated decay length can give rise to displaced multi-leptons/taus/jets/photons with small/moderate missing transverse energy. In the same spirit, a Higgs-like scalar decaying to a pair of scalars/pseudoscalars can produce final states with prompt multi-leptons/taus/jets/photons.
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