Abstract: We present an efficient method of reconstructing the parameters of the constrained MSSM from assumed future LHC data, applied both on their own right and in combination with the cosmological determination of the relic dark matter abundance. Focusing on the ATLAS SU3 benchmark point, we demonstrate that our simple Gaussian approximation can recover the values of its parameters remarkably well. We examine two popular noninformative priors and obtain very similar results, although when we use an informative, naturalness-motivated prior, we find some sizeable differences. We show that a further strong improvement in reconstructing the SU3 parameters can by achieved by applying additional information about the relic abundance at the level of WMAP accuracy, although the expected data from Planck will have only a very limited additional impact. Further external data may be required to break some remaining degeneracies. We argue that the method presented here is applicable to a wide class of low-energy effective supersymmetric models, as it does not require one to deal with purely experimental issues, e.g., detector performance, and has the additional advantages of computational efficiency. Furthermore, our approach allows one to distinguish the effect of the model's internal structure and of the external data on the final parameters constraints.

Abstract: Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.

Abstract: In this work, we explore the “degenerate gravitino” scenario where the mass difference between the gravitino and the lightest MSSM particle is much smaller than the gravitino mass itself. In this case, the energy released in the decay of the next to lightest sypersymmetric particle (NLSP) is reduced. Consequently the cosmological and astrophysical constraints on the gravitino abundance, and hence on the reheating temperature, become softer than in the usual case. On the other hand, such small mass splittings generically imply a much longer lifetime for the NLSP. We find that, in the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), for neutralino LSP or NLSP, reheating temperatures compatible with thermal leptogenesis are reached for small splittings of order 10(-2) GeV. While for stau NLSP, temperatures of T-RH similar or equal to 4 x 10(9) GeV can be obtained even for splittings of order of tens of GeVs. This “degenerate gravitino” scenario offers a possible way out to the gravitino problem for thermal leptogenesis in supersymmetric theories.