Abstract: We present a full Bayesian analysis of the combination of current neutrino oscillation, neutrinoless double beta decay and Cosmic Microwave Background observations. Our major goal is to carefully investigate the possibility to single out one neutrino mass ordering, namely Normal Ordering or Inverted Ordering, with current data. Two possible parametrizations (three neutrino masses versus the lightest neutrino mass plus the two oscillation mass splittings) and priors (linear versus logarithmic) are exhaustively examined. We find that the preference for NO is only driven by neutrino oscillation data. Moreover, the values of the Bayes factor indicate that the evidence for NO is strong only when the scan is performed over the three neutrino masses with logarithmic priors; for every other combination of parameterization and prior, the preference for NO is only weak. As a by-product of our Bayesian analyses, we are able to (a) compare the Bayesian bounds on the neutrino mixing parameters to those obtained by means of frequentist approaches, finding a very good agreement; (b) determine that the lightest neutrino mass plus the two mass splittings parametrization, motivated by the physical observables, is strongly preferred over the three neutrino mass eigenstates scan and (c) find that logarithmic priors guarantee a weakly-to-moderately more efficient sampling of the parameter space. These results establish the optimal strategy to successfully explore the neutrino parameter space, based on the use of the oscillation mass splittings and a logarithmic prior on the lightest neutrino mass, when combining neutrino oscillation data with cosmology and neutrinoless double beta decay. We also show that the limits on the total neutrino mass Sigma m(nu) can change dramatically when moving from one prior to the other. These results have profound implications for future studies on the neutrino mass ordering, as they crucially state the need for self-consistent analyses which explore the best parametrization and priors, without combining results that involve different assumptions.

Abstract: The recent observations from the James Webb Space Telescope have led to a surprising discovery of a significant density of massive galaxies with masses of M >= 10(10.5)M(circle dot) at redshifts of approximately z similar to 10. This corresponds to a stellar mass density of roughly rho* similar to 10(6)M(circle dot) Mpc(-3). Despite making conservative assumptions regarding galaxy formation, this finding may not be compatible with the standard.CDM cosmology that is favored by observations of CMB Anisotropies from the Planck satellite. In this paper, we confirm the substantial discrepancy with Planck's results within the.CDM framework. Assuming a value of is an element of = 0.2 for the efficiency of converting baryons into stars, we indeed find that the.CDM model is excluded at more than 99.7% confidence level (C.L.). An even more significant exclusion is found for is an element of similar to 0.1, while a better agreement, but still in tension at more than 95%, is obtained for is an element of = 0.32. This tension, as already discussed in the literature, could arise either from systematics in the JWST measurements or from new physics. Here, as a last-ditch effort, we point out that disregarding the large angular scale polarization obtained by Planck, which allows for significantly larger values of the matter clustering parameter sigma(8), could lead to better agreement between Planck and JWST within the.CDM framework. Assuming.CDM and no systematics in the current JWST results, this implies either an unknown systematic error in current large angular scale CMB polarization measurements or an unidentified physical mechanism that could lower the expected amount of CMB polarization produced during the epoch of reionization. Interestingly, the model compatible with Planck temperature-only data and JWST observation also favors a higher Hubble constant H-0 = 69.0 +/- 1.1 km/s/Mpc at 68% C.L., in better agreement with observations based on SN-Ia luminosity distances.

Abstract: The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations.