Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: The energy centroids and integrated strengths of Gamow-Teller transitions in the beta(+) and electron-capture decay are analyzed for nuclei whose proton number Z and neutron number N are restricted to 44 <= Z <= 50 and 50 <= N <= 58. The analysis is based on data measured both with high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometry and total gamma-ray absorption techniques. The dependence of the considered quantities on the relative neutron excess are established after taking into account the effects due to the Coulomb interaction and mean-field level occupancies. An extrapolation of this dependence to the lightest known tin isotopes is used to estimate the decay characteristics of Sn-100 and Sn-101. The values extrapolated for the half-lives of Sn-100 and Sn-101 agree with experimental data. Using the extrapolated values together with shell model predictions, the Q values for the electron-capture decay of Sn-100 is evaluated. The quenching factor for beta(+) and the electron-capture decay of the nuclei under consideration here is established to be 0.56(2) with a possible weak dependence on N – Z.