Abstract: We perform the baseline and energy optimization of the Neutrino Factory including the latest simulation results on the magnetized iron detector (MIND). We also consider the impact of tau decays, generated by v(mu) -> v(tau) or v(e) -> v(tau) appearance, on the mass hierarchy, CP violation, and theta(13) discovery reaches, which we find to be negligible for the considered detector. For the baseline-energy optimization for small sin(2) 2 theta(13), we qualitatively recover the results with earlier simulations of the MIND detector. We find optimal baselines of about 2 500km to 5 000km for the CP violation measurement, where now values of E-mu as low as about 12 GeV may be possible. However, for large sin(2) 2 theta(13), we demonstrate that the lower threshold and the backgrounds reconstructed at lower energies allow in fact for muon energies as low as 5 GeV at considerably shorter baselines, such as FNAL-Homestake. This implies that with the latest MIND analysis, low-and high-energy versions of the Neutrino Factory are just two different versions of the same experiment optimized for different parts of the parameter space. Apart from a green-field study of the updated detector performance, we discuss specific implementations for the two-baseline Neutrino Factory, where the considered detector sites are taken to be currently discussed underground laboratories. We find that reasonable setups can be found for the Neutrino Factory source in Asia, Europe, and North America, and that a triangular-shaped storage ring is possible in all cases based on geometrical arguments only.

Abstract: We study the contribution of nu(e) -> nu(tau) -> tau -> μtransitions to the wrong-sign muon sample of the golden channel of the Neutrino Factory. Muons from tau decays are not really a background, since they contain information from the oscillation signal, and represent a small fraction of the sample. However, if not properly handled they introduce serious systematic error, in particular if the detector/analysis are sensitive to muons of low energy. This systematic effect is particularly troublesome for large theta(13) >= 1 degrees and prevents the use of the Neutrino Factory as a precision facility for large theta(13). Such a systematic error disappears if the tau contribution to the golden muon sample is taken into account. The fact that the fluxes of the Neutrino Factory are exactly calculable permits the knowledge of the tau sample due to the nu(e) -> nu(tau) oscillation. We then compute the contribution to the muon sample arising from this sample in terms of the apparent muon energy. This requires the computation of a migration matrix M-ij which describes the contributions of the tau neutrinos of a given energy E-i, to the muon neutrinos of an apparent energy E-j. We demonstrate that applying M-ij to the data permits the full correction of the otherwise intolerable systematic error.

Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.