Feroz, F., Cranmer, K., Hobson, M., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans. J. High Energy Phys., 06(6), 042–23pp.
Abstract: Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.
|
Gunion, J. F., Lopez-Fogliani, D. E., Roszkowski, L., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Varley, T. A. (2011). Next-to-minimal supersymmetric model Higgs scenarios for partially universal GUT scale boundary conditions. Phys. Rev. D, 84(5), 055026–17pp.
Abstract: We examine the extent to which it is possible to realize the NMSSM “ideal Higgs” models espoused in several papers by Gunion et al. in the context of partially universal GUT scale boundary conditions. To this end we use the powerful methodology of nested sampling. We pay particular attention to whether ideal-Higgs-like points not only pass LEP constraints but are also acceptable in terms of the numerous constraints now available, including those from the Tevatron and B-factory data, (g – 2)(mu) and the relic density Omega h(2). In general for this particular methodology and range of parameters chosen, very few points corresponding to said previous studies were found, and those that were found were at best 2 sigma away from the preferred relic density value. Instead, there exist a class of points, which combine a mostly singlet-like Higgs with a mostly singlino-like neutralino coannihilating with the lightest stau, that are able to effectively pass all implemented constraints in the region 80 < m(h) < 100. It seems that the spin-independent direct detection cross section acts as a key discriminator between ideal Higgs points and the hard to detect singlino-like points.
|
Trotta, R., Johannesson, G., Moskalenko, I. V., Porter, T. A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Strong, A. W. (2011). Constraints on Cosmic-Ray Propagation Models from a Global Bayesian Analysis. Astrophys. J., 729(2), 106–16pp.
Abstract: Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.
|
Roszkowski, L., Ruiz de Austri, R., Trotta, R., Tsai, Y. L. S., & Varley, T. A. (2011). Global fits of the nonuniversal Higgs model. Phys. Rev. D, 83(1), 015014–19pp.
Abstract: We carry out global fits to the nonuniversal Higgs Model (NUHM), applying all relevant present-day constraints. We present global probability maps for the NUHM parameters and observables (including collider signatures, direct, and indirect detection quantities), both in terms of posterior probabilities and in terms of profile likelihood maps. We identify regions of the parameter space where the neutralino dark matter in the model is either binolike, or else higgsinolike with mass close to 1 TeV and a spin-independent scattering cross section similar to 10(-9)-10(-8) pb. We trace the occurrence of the higgsinolike region to be a consequence of a mild focusing effect in the running of one of the Higgs masses, the existence of which in the NUHM we identify in our analysis. Although the usual binolike neutralino is more prominent, higgsinolike dark matter cannot be excluded, however its significance strongly depends on the prior and statistics used to assess it. We note that, despite experimental constraints often favoring different regions of parameter space to the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model, most observational consequences appear fairly similar, which will make it challenging to distinguish the two models experimentally.
|
Bertone, G., Kong, K. C., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Trotta, R. (2011). Global fits of the minimal universal extra dimensions scenario. Phys. Rev. D, 83(3), 036008–15pp.
Abstract: In theories with universal extra dimensions (UED), the gamma(1) particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent dark matter (DM) candidate. Here, we use a modified version of the SUPERBAYES code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive, in particular, the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the gamma(1) with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at similar to 10(-11) pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb(-1) of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.
|
