Abstract: We analyze the implications for the status and prospects of supersymmetry of the Higgs discovery and the last XENON data. We focus mainly, but not only, on the CMSSM and NUHM models. Using a Bayesian approach we determine the distribution of probability in the parameter space of these scenarios. This shows that, most probably, they are now beyond the LHC reach. This negative chances increase further (at more than 95% c.l.) if one includes dark matter constraints in the analysis, in particular the last XENON100 data. However, the models would be probed completely by XENON1T. The mass of the LSP neutralino gets essentially fixed around 1TeV. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises automatically from the careful Bayesian analysis itself, and allows to scan the whole parameter space. In this way, we can explain and resolve the apparent discrepancies between the previous results in the literature. Although SUSY has become hard to detect at LHC, this does not necessarily mean that is very fine-tuned. We use Bayesian techniques to show the experimental Higgs mass is at similar to 2 sigma off the CMSSM or NUHM expectation. This is substantial but not dramatic. Although the CMSSM or the NUHM are unlikely to show up at the LHC, they are still interesting and plausible models after the Higgs observation; and, if they are true, the chances of discovering them in future dark matter experiments are quite high.

Abstract: There exists a vast literature examining the electroweak (EW) fine-tuning problem in supersymmetric scenarios, but little concerned with the dark matter (DM) one, which should be combined with the former. In this paper, we study this problem in an, as much as possible, exhaustive and rigorous way. We have considered the MSSM framework, assuming that the LSP is the lightest neutralino, chi(0)(1), and exploring the various possibilities for the mass and composition of chi(0)(1), as well as different mechanisms for annihilation of the DM particles in the early Universe (well-tempered neutralinos, funnels and co-annihilation scenarios). We also present a discussion about the statistical meaning of the fine-tuning and how it should be computed for the DM abundance, and combined with the EW fine-tuning. The results are very robust and model-independent and favour some scenarios (like the h-funnel when M-chi 10 is not too close to m(h)/2) with respect to others (such as the pure wino case). These features should be taken into account when one explores “natural SUSY” scenarios and their possible signatures at the LHC and in DM detection experiments.

Abstract: We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.

Abstract: In theories with universal extra dimensions (UED), the gamma(1) particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent dark matter (DM) candidate. Here, we use a modified version of the SUPERBAYES code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive, in particular, the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the gamma(1) with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at similar to 10(-11) pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb(-1) of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

Abstract: Dark matter (DM) is currently searched for with a variety of detection strategies. Accelerator searches are particularly promising, but even if weakly interacting massive particles are found at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), it will be difficult to prove that they constitute the bulk of the DM in the Universe Omega(DM). We show that a significantly better reconstruction of the DM properties can be obtained with a combined analysis of LHC and direct detection data, by making a simple Ansatz on the weakly interacting massive particles local density rho(0)((chi) over bar1), i.e., by assuming that the local density scales with the cosmological relic abundance, (rho(0)((chi) over bar1)/rho(DM)) = (Omega(0)((chi) over bar1)/Omega(DM)). We demonstrate this method in an explicit example in the context of a 24-parameter supersymmetric model, with a neutralino lightest supersymmetric particle in the stau coannihilation region. Our results show that future ton-scale direct detection experiments will allow to break degeneracies in the supersymmetric parameter space and achieve a significantly better reconstruction of the neutralino composition and its relic density than with LHC data alone.