Cranmer, K. et al, & Sanz, V. (2022). Publishing statistical models: Getting the most out of particle physics experiments. SciPost Phys., 12(1), 037–55pp.
Abstract: The statistical models used to derive the results of experimental analyses are of incredible scientific value and are essential information for analysis preservation and reuse. In this paper, we make the scientific case for systematically publishing the full statistical models and discuss the technical developments that make this practical. By means of a variety of physics cases – including parton distribution functions, Higgs boson measurements, effective field theory interpretations, direct searches for new physics, heavy flavor physics, direct dark matter detection, world averages, and beyond the Standard Model global fits – we illustrate how detailed information on the statistical modelling can enhance the short- and long-term impact of experimental results.
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Conde, D., Castillo, F. L., Escobar, C., García, C., Garcia Navarro, J. E., Sanz, V., et al. (2023). Forecasting Geomagnetic Storm Disturbances and Their Uncertainties Using Deep Learning. Space Weather, 21(11), e2023SW003474–27pp.
Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.
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Cepedello, R., Esser, F., Hirsch, M., & Sanz, V. (2022). Mapping the SMEFT to discoverable models. J. High Energy Phys., 09(9), 229–34pp.
Abstract: The matching of specific new physics scenarios onto the SMEFT framework is a well-understood procedure. The inverse problem, the matching of the SMEFT to UV scenarios, is more difficult and requires the development of new methods to perform a systematic exploration of models. In this paper we use a diagrammatic technique to construct in an automated way a complete set of possible UV models (given certain, well specified assumptions) that can produce specific groups of SMEFT operators, and illustrate its use by generating models with no tree-level contributions to four-fermion (4F) operators. Those scenarios, which only contribute to 4F at one-loop order, can contain relatively light particles that could be discovered at the LHC in direct searches. For this class of models, we find an interesting interplay between indirect SMEFT and direct searches. We discuss some examples on how this interplay would look like when combining low-energy observables with the SMEFT Higgs-fermion analyses and searches for resonance at the LHC.
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Cepedello, R., Esser, F., Hirsch, M., & Sanz, V. (2023). SMEFT goes dark: Dark Matter models for four-fermion operators. J. High Energy Phys., 09(9), 081–47pp.
Abstract: We study ultra-violet completions for d = 6 four-fermion operators in the standard model effective field theory (SMEFT), focusing on models that contain cold dark matter candidates. Via a diagrammatic method, we generate systematically lists of possible UV completions, with the aim of providing sets of models, which are complete under certain, well specified assumptions. Within these lists of models we rediscover many known DM models, as diverse as R-parity conserving supersymmetry or the scotogenic neutrino mass model. Our lists, however, also contain many new constructions, which have not been studied in the literature so far. We also briefly discuss how our DM models could be constrained by reinterpretations of LHC searches and the prospects for HL-LHC and future lepton colliders.
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Cepedello, R., Esser, F., Hirsch, M., & Sanz, V. (2024). Fermionic UV models for neutral triple gauge boson vertices. J. High Energy Phys., 07(7), 275–28pp.
Abstract: Searches for anomalous neutral triple gauge boson couplings (NTGCs) provide important tests for the gauge structure of the standard model. In SMEFT (“standard model effective field theory”) NTGCs appear only at the level of dimension-8 operators. While the phenomenology of these operators has been discussed extensively in the literature, renormalizable UV models that can generate these operators are scarce. In this work, we study a variety of extensions of the SM with heavy fermions and calculate their matching to d = 8 NTGC operators. We point out that the complete matching of UV models requires four different CP-conserving d = 8 operators and that the single CPC d = 8 operator, most commonly used by the experimental collaborations, does not describe all possible NTGC form factors. Despite stringent experimental constraints on NTGCs, limits on the scale of UV models are relatively weak, because their contributions are doubly suppressed (being d = 8 and 1-loop). We suggest a series of benchmark UV scenarios suitable for interpreting searches for NTGCs in the upcoming LHC runs, obtain their current limits and provide estimates for the expected sensitivity of the high-luminosity LHC.
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