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Author  |
Trotta, R.; Johannesson, G.; Moskalenko, I.V.; Porter, T.A.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Strong, A.W. |
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Title |
Constraints on Cosmic-Ray Propagation Models from a Global Bayesian Analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Astrophysical Journal |
Abbreviated Journal |
Astrophys. J. |
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Volume |
729 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
106 - 16pp |
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Keywords |
astroparticle physics; cosmic rays; diffusion; Galaxy: general; ISM: general; methods: statistical |
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Abstract |
Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP. |
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Address |
[Trotta, R.] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Astrophys Grp, Blackett Lab, London SW7 2AZ, England |
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Iop Publishing Ltd |
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English |
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ISSN |
0004-637x |
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Notes |
ISI:000288608700029 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
541 |
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Author |
Strege, C.; Bertone, G.; Feroz, F.; Fornasa, M.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Global fits of the cMSSM and NUHM including the LHC Higgs discovery and new XENON100 constraints |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. |
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Volume |
04 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
013 - 40pp |
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Keywords |
dark matter theory; supersymmetry and cosmology |
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Abstract |
We present global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM) and the Non-Universal Higgs Model (NUHM), including the most recent CMS constraint on the Higgs boson mass, 5.8 fb(-1) integrated luminosity null Supersymmetry searches by ATLAS, the new LHCb measurement of B R ((B) over bar (s) -> mu(+) mu(-)) and the 7-year WMAP dark matter relic abundance determination. We include the latest dark matter constraints from the XENON100 experiment, marginalising over astrophysical and particle physics uncertainties. We present Bayesian posterior and profile likelihood maps of the highest resolution available today, obtained from up to 350M points. We find that the new constraint on the Higgs boson mass has a dramatic impact, ruling out large regions of previously favoured cMSSM and NUHM parameter space. In the cMSSM, light sparticles and predominantly gaugino-like dark matter with a mass of a few hundred GeV are favoured. The NUHM exhibits a strong preference for heavier sparticle masses and a Higgsino-like neutralino with a mass of 1 TeV. The future ton-scale XENON1T direct detection experiment will probe large portions of the currently favoured cMSSM and NUHM parameter space. The LHC operating at 14 TeV collision energy will explore the favoured regions in the cMSSM, while most of the regions favoured in the NUHM will remain inaccessible. Our best-fit points achieve a satisfactory quality-of-fit, with p-values ranging from 0.21 to 0.35, so that none of the two models studied can be presently excluded at any meaningful significance level. |
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Address |
Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Blackett Lab, Astrophys Grp, London SW7 2AZ, England, Email: charlotte.strege09@imperial.ac.uk; |
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Iop Publishing Ltd |
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English |
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ISSN |
1475-7516 |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000318556200013 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
1445 |
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Author |
Strege, C.; Bertone, G.; Cerdeño, D.G.; Fornasa, M.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Updated global fits of the cMSSM including the latest LHC SUSY and Higgs searches and XENON100 data |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. |
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Volume |
03 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
030 - 22pp |
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Keywords |
dark matter theory; dark matter experiments |
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Abstract |
We present new global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including LHC 1/fb integrated luminosity SUSY exclusion limits, recent LHC 5/fb constraints on the mass of the Higgs boson and XENON100 direct detection data. Our analysis fully takes into account astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter the analysis when translating direct detection limits into constraints on the cMSSM parameter space. We provide results for both a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical analysis. We find that LHC 2011 constraints in combination with XENON100 data can rule out a significant portion of the cMSSM parameter space. Our results further emphasise the complementarity of collider experiments and direct detection searches in constraining extensions of Standard Model physics. The LHC 2011 exclusion limit strongly impacts on low-mass regions of cMSSM parameter space, such as the stau co-annihilation region, while direct detection data can rule out regions of high SUSY masses, such as the Focus-Point region, which is unreachable for the LHC in the near future. We show that, in addition to XENON100 data, the experimental constraint on the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon plays a dominant role in disfavouring large scalar and gaugino masses. We find that, should the LHC 2011 excess hinting towards a Higgs boson at 126 GeV be confirmed, currently favoured regions of the cMSSM parameter space will be robustly ruled out from both a Bayesian and a profile likelihood statistical perspective. |
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Address |
[Strege, C.; Trotta, R.] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Blackett Lab, Astrophys Grp, London SW7 2AZ, England, Email: charlotte.strege09@imperial.ac.uk; |
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Publisher |
Iop Publishing Ltd |
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English |
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ISSN |
1475-7516 |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000302949600030 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
1001 |
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Author |
Strege, C.; Bertone, G.; Besjes, G.J.; Caron, S.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Strubig, A.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Profile likelihood maps of a 15-dimensional MSSM |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of High Energy Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. High Energy Phys. |
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Volume |
09 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
081 - 59pp |
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Keywords |
Supersymmetry Phenomenology |
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Abstract |
We present statistically convergent profile likelihood maps obtained via global fits of a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with 15 free parameters (the MSSM-15), based on over 250M points. We derive constraints on the model parameters from direct detection limits on dark matter, the Planck relic density measurement and data from accelerator searches. We provide a detailed analysis of the rich phenomenology of this model, and determine the SUSY mass spectrum and dark matter properties that are preferred by current experimental constraints. We evaluate the impact of the measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon (g – 2) on our results, and provide an analysis of scenarios in which the lightest neutralino is a subdominant component of the dark matter. The MSSM-15 parameters are relatively weakly constrained by current data sets, with the exception of the parameters related to dark matter phenomenology (M-1, M-2, mu), which are restricted to the sub-TeV regime, mainly due to the relic density constraint. The mass of the lightest neutralino is found to be < 1.5TeV at 99% C.L., but can extend up to 3 TeV when excluding the g – 2 constraint from the analysis. Low-mass bino-like neutralinos are strongly favoured, with spin-independent scattering cross-sections extending to very small values, similar to 10(-20) pb. ATLAS SUSY null searches strongly impact on this mass range, and thus rule out a region of parameter space that is outside the reach of any current or future direct detection experiment. The best-fit point obtained after inclusion of all data corresponds to a squark mass of 2.3 TeV, a gluino mass of 2.1 TeV and a 130 GeV neutralino with a spin-independent cross-section of 2.4 x 10(-10) pb, which is within the reach of future multi-ton scale direct detection experiments and of the upcoming LHC run at increased centre-of-mass energy. |
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Address |
[Strege, C.; Trotta, R.] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Imperial Ctr Inference & Cosmol, Blackett Lab, Astrophys Grp, London SW7 2AZ, England, Email: charlotte.strege09@imperial.ac.uk; |
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Publisher |
Springer |
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English |
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ISSN |
1029-8479 |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000342069700001 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
1934 |
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Author |
Roszkowski, L.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R.; Tsai, Y.L.S.; Varley, T.A. |
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Title |
Global fits of the nonuniversal Higgs model |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Physical Review D |
Abbreviated Journal |
Phys. Rev. D |
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Volume |
83 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
015014 - 19pp |
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Keywords |
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Abstract |
We carry out global fits to the nonuniversal Higgs Model (NUHM), applying all relevant present-day constraints. We present global probability maps for the NUHM parameters and observables (including collider signatures, direct, and indirect detection quantities), both in terms of posterior probabilities and in terms of profile likelihood maps. We identify regions of the parameter space where the neutralino dark matter in the model is either binolike, or else higgsinolike with mass close to 1 TeV and a spin-independent scattering cross section similar to 10(-9)-10(-8) pb. We trace the occurrence of the higgsinolike region to be a consequence of a mild focusing effect in the running of one of the Higgs masses, the existence of which in the NUHM we identify in our analysis. Although the usual binolike neutralino is more prominent, higgsinolike dark matter cannot be excluded, however its significance strongly depends on the prior and statistics used to assess it. We note that, despite experimental constraints often favoring different regions of parameter space to the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model, most observational consequences appear fairly similar, which will make it challenging to distinguish the two models experimentally. |
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Address |
[Roszkowski, Leszek; Tsai, Yue-Lin Sming; Varley, Tom A.] Univ Sheffield, Dept Phys & Astron, Sheffield S3 7RH, S Yorkshire, England, Email: L.Roszkowski@sheffield.ac.uk |
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Publisher |
Amer Physical Soc |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1550-7998 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
ISI:000286765800007 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
586 |
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Author |
Roszkowski, L.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Efficient reconstruction of constrained MSSM parameters from LHC data: A case study |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2010 |
Publication |
Physical Review D |
Abbreviated Journal |
Phys. Rev. D |
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Volume |
82 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
055003 - 12pp |
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Keywords |
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Abstract |
We present an efficient method of reconstructing the parameters of the constrained MSSM from assumed future LHC data, applied both on their own right and in combination with the cosmological determination of the relic dark matter abundance. Focusing on the ATLAS SU3 benchmark point, we demonstrate that our simple Gaussian approximation can recover the values of its parameters remarkably well. We examine two popular noninformative priors and obtain very similar results, although when we use an informative, naturalness-motivated prior, we find some sizeable differences. We show that a further strong improvement in reconstructing the SU3 parameters can by achieved by applying additional information about the relic abundance at the level of WMAP accuracy, although the expected data from Planck will have only a very limited additional impact. Further external data may be required to break some remaining degeneracies. We argue that the method presented here is applicable to a wide class of low-energy effective supersymmetric models, as it does not require one to deal with purely experimental issues, e.g., detector performance, and has the additional advantages of computational efficiency. Furthermore, our approach allows one to distinguish the effect of the model's internal structure and of the external data on the final parameters constraints. |
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Address |
[Roszkowski, Leszek] Univ Sheffield, Dept Phys & Astron, Sheffield S3 7RH, S Yorkshire, England, Email: L.Roszkowski@sheffield.ac.uk |
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Publisher |
Amer Physical Soc |
Place of Publication |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1550-7998 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
ISI:000281517100002 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ elepoucu @ |
Serial |
385 |
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Author |
Pato, M.; Baudis, L.; Bertone, G.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Strigari, L.E.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Complementarity of dark matter direct detection targets |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Physical Review D |
Abbreviated Journal |
Phys. Rev. D |
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Volume |
83 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
083505 - 11pp |
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Keywords |
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Abstract |
We investigate the reconstruction capabilities of the dark matter mass and spin-independent cross section from future ton-scale direct detection experiments using germanium, xenon, or argon as targets. Adopting realistic values for the exposure, energy threshold, and resolution of dark matter experiments which will come online within 5 to 10 years, the degree of complementarity between different targets is quantified. We investigate how the uncertainty in the astrophysical parameters controlling the local dark matter density and velocity distribution affects the reconstruction. For a 50 GeV WIMP, astrophysical uncertainties degrade the accuracy in the mass reconstruction by up to a factor of similar to 4 for xenon and germanium, compared to the case when astrophysical quantities are fixed. However, the combination of argon, germanium, and xenon data increases the constraining power by a factor of similar to 2 compared to germanium or xenon alone. We show that future direct detection experiments can achieve self-calibration of some astrophysical parameters, and they will be able to constrain the WIMP mass with only very weak external astrophysical constraints. |
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Address |
[Pato, Miguel; Bertone, Gianfranco] Univ Zurich, Inst Theoret Phys, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland, Email: pato@iap.fr |
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Publisher |
Amer Physical Soc |
Place of Publication |
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English |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1550-7998 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
ISI:000289353200003 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
605 |
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Author |
Liem, S.; Bertone, G.; Calore, F.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Tait, T.M.P.; Trotta, R.; Weniger, C. |
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Title |
Effective field theory of dark matter: a global analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Journal of High Energy Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. High Energy Phys. |
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Volume |
09 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
077 - 22pp |
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Keywords |
Beyond Standard Model; Cosmology of Theories beyond the SM; Effective field theories |
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Abstract |
We present global fits of an effective field theory description of real, and complex scalar dark matter candidates. We simultaneously take into account all possible dimension 6 operators consisting of dark matter bilinears and gauge invariant combinations of quark and gluon fields. We derive constraints on the free model parameters for both the real (five parameters) and complex (seven) scalar dark matter models obtained by combining Planck data on the cosmic microwave background, direct detection limits from LUX, and indirect detection limits from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We find that for real scalars indirect dark matter searches disfavour a dark matter particle mass below 100 GeV. For the complex scalar dark matter particle current data have a limited impact due to the presence of operators that lead to p-wave annihilation, and also do not contribute to the spin-independent scattering cross-section. Although current data are not informative enough to strongly constrain the theory parameter space, we demonstrate the power of our formalism to reconstruct the theoretical parameters compatible with an actual dark matter detection, by assuming that the excess of gamma rays observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope towards the Galactic centre is entirely due to dark matter annihilations. Please note that the excess can very well be due to astrophysical sources such as millisecond pulsars. We find that scalar dark matter interacting via effective field theory operators can in principle explain the Galactic centre excess, but that such interpretation is in strong tension with the non-detection of gamma rays from dwarf galaxies in the real scalar case. In the complex scalar case there is enough freedom to relieve the tension. |
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Address |
[Liem, Sebastian; Bertone, Gianfranco; Calore, Francesca; Weniger, Christoph] Univ Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Sci Pk 904, NL-1098 XH Amsterdam, Netherlands, Email: sebastian.liem@uva.nl; |
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Publisher |
Springer |
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English |
Summary Language |
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ISSN |
1029-8479 |
ISBN |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000383545500003 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
2864 |
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Author |
Johannesson, G.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Vincent, A.C.; Moskalenko, I.V.; Orlando, E.; Porter, T.A.; Strong, A.W.; Trotta, R.; Feroz, F.; Graff, P.; Hobson, M.P. |
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Title |
Bayesian analysis of cosmic-ray propagation: evidence against homogeneous diffusion |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Astrophysical Journal |
Abbreviated Journal |
Astrophys. J. |
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Volume |
824 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
16 - 19pp |
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Keywords |
astroparticle physics; cosmic rays; diffusion; Galaxy: general; ISM: general; methods: statistical |
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Abstract |
We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, (p) over bar and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p, (p) over bar, and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and Be-10/Be-9 secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update. |
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Address |
[Johannesson, G.] Univ Iceland, Inst Sci, Dunhaga 3, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland |
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Publisher |
Iop Publishing Ltd |
Place of Publication |
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English |
Summary Language |
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ISSN |
0004-637x |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000377937300016 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
2727 |
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Author |
Feroz, F.; Cranmer, K.; Hobson, M.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Journal of High Energy Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. High Energy Phys. |
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Volume |
06 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
042 - 23pp |
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Keywords |
Supersymmetry Phenomenology |
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Abstract |
Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded. |
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Address |
[Feroz, F; Hobson, M] Univ Cambridge, Cavendish Lab, Cambridge CB3 0HE, England, Email: f.feroz@mrao.cam.ac.uk |
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Publisher |
Springer |
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Language |
English |
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ISSN |
1126-6708 |
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Notes |
WOS:000293136500042 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ elepoucu @ |
Serial |
745 |
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