Abstract: Nuclear matrix elements (NME) are a crucial input for the interpretation of neutrinoless double beta decay data. We consider a representative set of recent NME calculations from different methods and investigate the impact on the present bound on the effective Majorana mass m(& beta;& beta;) by performing a combined analysis of the available data as well as on the sensitivity reach of future projects. A crucial role is played by the recently discovered short-range contribution to the NME, induced by light Majorana neutrino masses. Depending on the NME model and the relative sign of the long- and short-range contributions, the current 3 & sigma; bound can change between m(& beta;& beta;)< 40 meV and 600 meV. The sign-uncertainty may either boost the sensitivity of next-generation experiments beyond the region for m(& beta;& beta;) predicted for inverted mass ordering or prevent even advanced setups to reach this region. Furthermore, we study the possibility to distinguish between different NME calculations by assuming a positive signal and by combining measurements from different isotopes. Such a discrimination will be impossible if the relative sign of the long- and short-range contribution remains unknown, but can become feasible if m(& beta;& beta;) & GSIM; 40 meV and if the relative sign is known to be positive. Sensitivities will be dominated by the advanced Ge-76 and Xe-136 setups assumed here, but NME model-discrimination improves if data from a third isotope is added, e.g., from Te-130 or Mo-100.