Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: We have studied the consequences of breaking the CPT symmetry in the neutrino sector, using the expected high-energy neutrino flux from distant cosmological sources such as active galaxies. For this purpose we have assumed three different hypotheses for the neutrino production model, characterised by the flavour fluxes at production phi(0)(e) : phi(0)(mu) : phi(0)(tau) = 1 : 2 : 0, 0 : 1 : 0, and 1 : 0 : 0, and studied the theoretical and experimental expectations for the muon-neutrino flux at Earth, phi(mu), and for the flavour ratios at Earth, R = phi(mu)/phi(e) and S = phi(tau)/phi(mu). CPT violation (CPTV) has been implemented by adding an energy-independent term to the standard neutrino oscillation Hamiltonian. This introduces three new mixing angles, two new eigenvalues and three new phases, all of which have currently unknown values. We have varied the new mixing angles and eigenvalues within certain bounds, together with the parameters associated to pure standard oscillations. Our results indicate that, for the models 1 : 2 : 0 and 0 : 1 : 0, it might be possible to find large deviations of phi(mu), R, and S between the cases without and with CPTV, provided the CPTV eigenvalues lie within 10(-29) – 10(-27) GeV, or above. Moreover, if CPTV exists, there are certain values of R and S that can be accounted for by up to three production models. If no CPTV were observed, we could set limits on the CPTV eigenvalues of the same order. Detection prospects calculated using IceCube suggest that for the models 1 : 2 : 0 and 0 : 1 : 0, the modifications due to CPTV are larger and more clearly separable from the standard-oscillations predictions. We conclude that IceCube is potentially able to detect CPTV but that, depending on the values of the CPTV parameters, there could be a mis-determination of the neutrino production model.

Abstract: We present a new geometric approach to the flavour decomposition of an arbitrary soft supersymmetry-breaking sector in the MSSM. Our approach is based on the geometry that results from the quark and lepton Yukawa couplings, and enables us to derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for a linearly-independent basis of matrices related to the completeness of the internal [SU(3) circle times U(1)](5) flavour space. In a second step, we calculate the effective Yukawa couplings that are enhanced at large values of tan beta for general soft supersymmetry-breaking mass parameters. We highlight the contributions due to non-universal terms in the flavour decompositions of the sfermion mass matrices. We present numerical examples illustrating how such terms are induced by renormalization-group evolution starting from universal input boundary conditions, and demonstrate their importance for the flavour-violating effective Yukawa couplings of quarks.