Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: We explore possible signatures for charged lepton flavour violation (LFV), sparticle discovery at the LHC and dark matter (DM) searches in grand unified theories (GUTs) based on SU(5), flipped SU(5) (FSU(5)) and SU(4)(c) x SU(2)(L) x SU(2)(R) (4-2-2). We assume that soft supersymmetry-breaking terms preserve the group symmetry at some high input scale, and focus on the non-universal effects on different matter representations generated by gauge interactions at lower scales, as well as the charged LFV induced in Type-1 see-saw models of neutrino masses. We identify the different mechanisms that control the relic DM density in the various GUT models, and contrast their LFV and LHC signatures. The SU(5) and 4-2-2 models offer good detection prospects both at the LHC and in LFV searches, though with different LSP compositions, and the SU(5) and FSU(5) models offer LFV within the current reach. The 4-2-2 model allows chargino and gluino coannihilations with neutralinos, and the former offer good detection prospects for both the LHC and LFV, while gluino coannihilations lead to lower LFV rates. Our results indicate that LFV is a powerful tool that complements LHC and DM searches, providing significant insights into the sparticle spectra and neutrino mass parameters in different models.

Abstract: Long-lived particles have become a new frontier in the exploration of physics beyond the Standard Model. In this paper, we present the implementation of four types of long-lived particle searches, viz. displaced leptons, disappearing track, displaced vertex with either muons or with missing transverse energy, and heavy charged tracks. These four categories cover the signatures of a large range of physics models. We illustrate their potential for exclusion and discuss their mutual overlaps in mass-lifetime space for two simple phenomenological models involving either a U(1)-charged or a coloured scalar.