Abstract: Off the beaten track of scalar singlet and doublet extensions of the Standard Model, triplets combine an interesting LHC phenomenology with an explanation for neutrino masses. The Georgi-Machacek model falls into this category, but it has never been fully explored in a global fit. We use the HEPfit package to combine recent experimental Higgs data with theoretical constraints and obtain strong limits on the mixing angles and mass differences between the heavy new scalars as well as their decay widths. We also find that the current signal strength measurements allow for a Higgs to vector boson coupling with an opposite sign to the Standard Model, but this possibility can be ruled out by the lack of direct evidence for heavy Higgs states. For these hypothetical particles, we identify the dominant decay channels and extract bounds on their branching ratios from the global fit, which can be used to single out the decay patterns relevant for the experimental searches.

Abstract: Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.