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Johannesson, G., Ruiz de Austri, R., Vincent, A. C., Moskalenko, I. V., Orlando, E., Porter, T. A., et al. (2016). Bayesian analysis of cosmic-ray propagation: evidence against homogeneous diffusion. Astrophys. J., 824(1), 16–19pp.
Abstract: We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, (p) over bar and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p, (p) over bar, and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and Be-10/Be-9 secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update.
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Jueid, A., Kip, J., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Skands, P. (2023). Impact of QCD uncertainties on antiproton spectra from dark-matter annihilation. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 04(4), 068–15pp.
Abstract: Dark-matter particles that annihilate or decay can undergo complex sequences of processes, including strong and electromagnetic radiation, hadronisation, and hadron de-cays, before particles that are stable on astrophysical time scales are produced. Antiprotons produced in this way may leave footprints in experiments such as AMS-02. Several groups have reported an excess of events in the antiproton flux in the rigidity range of 10-20 GV. However, the theoretical modeling of baryon production is not straightforward and relies in part on phenomenological models in Monte Carlo event generators. In this work, we assess the impact of QCD uncertainties on the spectra of antiprotons from dark-matter annihila-tion. As a proof-of-principle, we show that for a two-parameter model that depends only on the thermally-averaged annihilation cross section ((o -v)) and the dark-matter mass (Mx), QCD uncertainties can affect the best-fit mass by up to ti 14% (with large uncertainties for large DM masses), depending on the choice of Mx and the annihilation channel (bb over bar or W+W-), and (o -v) by up to ti 10%. For comparison, changes to the underlying diffusion parameters are found to be within 1%-5%, and the results are also quite resilient to the choice of cosmic-ray propagation model. These findings indicate that QCD uncertainties need to be included in future DM analyses. To facilitate full-fledged analyses, we provide the spectra in tabulated form including QCD uncertainties and code snippets to perform mass interpolations and quick DM fits. The code can be found in this GitHub [1] repository.
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Jueid, A., Kip, J., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Skands, P. (2024). The Strong Force meets the Dark Sector: a robust estimate of QCD uncertainties for anti-matter dark matter searches. J. High Energy Phys., 02(2), 119–48pp.
Abstract: In dark-matter annihilation channels to hadronic final states, stable particles – such as positrons, photons, antiprotons, and antineutrinos – are produced via complex sequences of phenomena including QED/QCD radiation, hadronisation, and hadron decays. These processes are normally modelled by Monte Carlo (MC) event generators whose limited accuracy imply intrinsic QCD uncertainties on the predictions for indirect-detection experiments like Fermi-LAT, Pamela, IceCube or Ams-02. In this article, we perform a comprehensive analysis of QCD uncertainties, meaning both perturbative and nonperturbative sources of uncertainty are included – estimated via variations of MC renormalization-scale and fragmentation-function parameters, respectively – in antimatter spectra from dark-matter annihilation, based on parametric variations of the Pythia 8 event generator. After performing several retunings of light-quark fragmentation functions, we define a set of variations that span a conservative estimate of the QCD uncertainties. We estimate the effects on antimatter spectra for various annihilation channels and final-state particle species, and discuss their impact on fitted values for the dark-matter mass and thermally-averaged annihilation cross section. We find dramatic impacts which can go up to O(10%) for the annihilation cross section. We provide the spectra in tabulated form including QCD uncertainties and code snippets to perform fast dark-matter fits, in this github repository.
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De La Torre Luque, P., Gaggero, D., Grasso, D., Fornieri, O., Egberts, K., Steppa, C., et al. (2023). Galactic diffuse gamma rays meet the PeV frontier. Astron. Astrophys., 672, A58–11pp.
Abstract: The Tibet AS gamma and LHAASO collaborations recently reported the observation of a gamma-ray diffuse emission with energy up to the PeV level from the Galactic plane.Aims. We discuss the relevance of non-uniform cosmic-ray transport scenarios and the implications of these results for cosmic-ray physics.Methods. We used the DRAGON and HERMES codes to build high-resolution maps and spectral distributions of that emission for several representative models under the condition that they reproduce a wide set of local cosmic-ray data up to 100 PeV.Results. We show that the energy spectra measured by Tibet AS gamma, LHAASO, ARGO-YBJ, and Fermi-LAT in several regions of interest in the sky can all be reasonably described in terms of the emission arising by the Galactic cosmic-ray “sea”. We also show that all our models are compatible with IceTop gamma-ray upper limits.Conclusions. We compare the predictions of conventional and space-dependent transport models with those data sets. Although the Fermi-LAT, ARGO-YBJ, and LHAASO preliminary data slightly favor this scenario, due to the still large experimental errors, the poorly known source spectral shape at the highest energies, the potential role of spatial fluctuations in the leptonic component, and a possible larger-than-expected contamination due to unresolved sources, a solid confirmation requires further investigations. We discuss which measurements will be most relevant in order to resolve the remaining degeneracy.
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De La Torre Luque, P., Gaggero, D., Grasso, D., & Marinelli, A. (2022). Prospects for detection of a galactic diffuse neutrino flux. Front. Astron. Space Sci., 9, 1041838–9pp.
Abstract: A Galactic cosmic-ray transport model featuring non-homogeneous transport has been developed over the latest years. This setup is aimed at reproducing gamma-ray observations in different regions of the Galaxy (with particular focus on the progressive hardening of the hadronic spectrum in the inner Galaxy) and was shown to be compatible with the very-high-energy gamma-ray diffuse emission recently detected up to PeV energies. In this work, we extend the results previously presented to test the reliability of that model throughout the whole sky. To this aim, we compare our predictions with detailed longitude and latitude profiles of the diffuse gamma-ray emission measured by Fermi-LAT for different energies and compute the expected Galactic nu diffuse emission, comparing it with current limits from the ANTARES collaboration. We emphasize that the possible detection of a Galactic nu component will allow us to break the degeneracy between our model and other scenarios featuring prominent contributions from unresolved sources and TeV halos.
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Menjo, H. et al, Faus-Golfe, A., & Velasco, J. (2011). Monte Carlo study of forward pi(0) production spectra to be measured by the LHCf experiment for the purpose of benchmarking hadron interaction models at 10(17) eV. Astropart Phys., 34(7), 513–520.
Abstract: The LHCf experiment aims to improve knowledge of forward neutral particle production spectra at the LHC energy which is relevant for the interpretation of air shower development of high energy cosmic rays. Two detectors, each composed of a pair of sampling and imaging calorimeters, have been installed at the forward region of IP1 to measure pi(0) energy spectra above 600 GeV. In this paper, we present a Monte Carlo study of the pi(0) measurements to be performed with one of the LHCf detectors for proton-proton collisions at root s = 14 TeV. In approximately 40 min of operation at luminosity 0.8 x 10(29) cm(-2) s(-1) during the beam commissioning phase of LHC, about 1.5 x 10(4) pi(0) events are expected to be obtained at two transverse positions of the detector. The backgrounds from interactions of secondary particles with beam pipes and interactions of beam particles with residual gas in the beam pipes are expected to be less than 0.1% of the signal from pi(0)s. We also discuss the capability of LHCf measurements to discriminate between the various hadron interaction models that are used for simulation of high energy air showers, such as DPMJET3.03, QGSJETII-03, SIBYLL2.1 and EPOS1.99.
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Pierre Auger Collaboration(Aab, A. et al), & Pastor, S. (2014). Origin of atmospheric aerosols at the Pierre Auger Observatory using studies of air mass trajectories in South America. Atmos. Res., 149, 120–135.
Abstract: The Pierre Auger Observatory is making significant contributions towards understanding the nature and origin of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. One of its main challenges is the monitoring of the atmosphere, both in terms of its state variables and its optical properties. The aim of this work is to analyse aerosol optical depth tau(a)(z) values measured from 2004 to 2012 at the observatory, which is located in a remote and relatively unstudied area of Pampa Amarilla, Argentina. The aerosol optical depth is in average quite low – annual mean tau(a)(3.5 km) similar to 0.04 – and shows a seasonal trend with a winter minimum – tau(a)(3.5 km) – 0.03 -, and a summer maximum – tau(a)(3.5 km) similar to 0.06 -, and an unexpected increase from August to September tau(a)(35 km) similar to 0.055. We computed backward trajectories for the years 2005 to 2012 to interpret the air mass origin. Winter nights with low aerosol concentrations show air masses originating from the Pacific Ocean. Average concentrations are affected by continental sources (wind-blown dust and urban pollution), whilst the peak observed in September and October could be linked to biomass burning in the northern part of Argentina or air pollution coming from surrounding urban areas.
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AMON and ANTARES Collaborations(Ayala Solares, H. A. et al), Barrios-Marti, J., Coleiro, A., Colomer, M., Gozzini, R., Hernandez-Rey, J. J., et al. (2019). A Search for Cosmic Neutrino and Gamma-Ray Emitting Transients in 7.3 yr of ANTARES and Fermi LAT Data. Astrophys. J., 886(2), 98–8pp.
Abstract: We analyze 7.3 yr of ANTARES high-energy neutrino and Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) gamma-ray data in search of cosmic neutrino + gamma-ray (nu + gamma) transient sources or source populations. Our analysis has the potential to detect either individual nu + gamma transient sources (durations delta t less than or similar to 1000 s), if they exhibit sufficient gamma-ray or neutrino multiplicity, or a statistical excess of nu + gamma transients of individually lower multiplicities. Individual high gamma-ray multiplicity events could be produced, for example, by a single ANTARES neutrino in coincidence with a LAT-detected gamma-ray burst. Treating ANTARES track and cascade event types separately, we establish detection thresholds by Monte Carlo scrambling of the neutrino data, and determine our analysis sensitivity by signal injection against these scrambled data sets. We find our analysis is sensitive to nu + gamma transient populations responsible for >5% of the observed gamma-coincident neutrinos in the track data at 90% confidence. Applying our analysis to the unscrambled data reveals no individual nu + gamma events of high significance; two ANTARES track + Fermi gamma-ray events are identified that exceed a once per decade false alarm rate threshold (p = 17%). No evidence for subthreshold nu + gamma source populations is found among the track (p = 39%) or cascade (p = 60%) events. Exploring a possible correlation of high-energy neutrino directions with Fermi gamma-ray sky brightness identified in previous work yields no added support for this correlation. While TXS.0506+056, a blazar and variable (nontransient) Fermi gamma-ray source, has recently been identified as the first source of high-energy neutrinos, the challenges in reconciling observations of the Fermi gamma-ray sky, the IceCube high-energy cosmic neutrinos, and ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays using only blazars suggest a significant contribution by other source populations. Searches for transient sources of high-energy neutrinos thus remain interesting, with the potential for either neutrino clustering or multimessenger coincidence searches to lead to discovery of the first nu + gamma transients.
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Trotta, R., Johannesson, G., Moskalenko, I. V., Porter, T. A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Strong, A. W. (2011). Constraints on Cosmic-Ray Propagation Models from a Global Bayesian Analysis. Astrophys. J., 729(2), 106–16pp.
Abstract: Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.
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