Abstract: Severe space weather produced by disturbed conditions on the Sun results in harmful effects both for humans in space and in high-latitude flights, and for technological systems such as spacecraft or communications. Also, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flowing on long ground-based conductors, such as power networks, potentially threaten critical infrastructures on Earth. The first step in developing an alarm system against GICs is to forecast them. This is a challenging task given the highly non-linear dependencies of the response of the magnetosphere to these perturbations. In the last few years, modern machine-learning models have shown to be very good at predicting magnetic activity indices. However, such complex models are on the one hand difficult to tune, and on the other hand they are known to bring along potentially large prediction uncertainties which are generally difficult to estimate. In this work we aim at predicting the SYM-H index characterizing geomagnetic storms multiple-hour ahead, using public interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point and SYM-H data. We implement a type of machine-learning model called long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Our scope is to estimate the prediction uncertainties coming from a deep-learning model in the context of forecasting the SYM-H index. These uncertainties will be essential to set reliable alarm thresholds. The resulting uncertainties turn out to be sizable at the critical stages of the geomagnetic storms. Our methodology includes as well an efficient optimization of important hyper-parameters of the LSTM network and robustness tests.

Abstract: Sterile neutrinos with a mass in the eV range have been invoked as a possible explanation of a variety of short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation anomalies. However, if one considers neutrino oscillations between active and sterile neutrinos, such neutrinos would have been fully thermalised in the early universe, and would be therefore in strong conflict with cosmological bounds. In this study we first update cosmological bounds on the mass and energy density of eV-scale sterile neutrinos. We then perform an updated study of a previously proposed model in which the sterile neutrino couples to a new light pseudoscalar degree of freedom. Consistently with previous analyses, we find that the model provides a good fit to all cosmological data and allows the high value of H-0 measured in the local universe to be consistent with measurements of the cosmic microwave background. However, new high l polarisation data constrain the sterile neutrino mass to be less than approximately 1 eV in this scenario. Finally, we combine the cosmological bounds on the pseudoscalar model with a Bayesian inference analysis of SBL data and conclude that only a sterile mass in narrow ranges around 1 eV remains consistent with both cosmology and SBL data.

Abstract: Symmetries in the Physical Laws of Nature lead to observable effects. Beyond the regularities and conserved magnitudes, the last few decades in particle physics have seen the identification of symmetries, and their well-defined breaking, as the guiding principle for the elementary constituents of matter and their interactions. Flavour SU(3) symmetry of hadrons led to the Quark Model and the antisymmetric requirement under exchange of identical fermions led to the colour degree of freedom. Colour became the generating charge for flavour-independent strong interactions of quarks and gluons in the exact colour SU(3) local gauge symmetry. Parity Violation in weak interactions led us to consider the chiral fields of fermions as the objects with definite transformation properties under the weak isospin SU(2) gauge group of the Unifying Electro-Weak SU(2) x U(1) symmetry, which predicted novel weak neutral current interactions. CP-Violation led to three families of quarks opening the field of Flavour Physics. Time-reversal violation has recently been observed with entangled neutral mesons, compatible with CPT-invariance. The cancellation of gauge anomalies, which would invalidate the gauge symmetry of the quantum field theory, led to Quark-Lepton Symmetry. Neutrinos were postulated in order to save the conservation laws of energy and angular momentum in nuclear beta decay. After the ups and downs of their mass, neutrino oscillations were discovered in 1998, opening a new era about their origin of mass, mixing, discrete symmetries and the possibility of global lepton-number violation through Majorana mass terms and Leptogenesis as the source of the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. The experimental discovery of quarks and leptons and the mediators of their interactions, with physical observables in spectacular agreement with this Standard Theory, is the triumph of Symmetries. The gauge symmetry is exact only when the particles are massless. One needs a subtle breaking of the symmetry, providing the origin of mass without affecting the excellent description of the interactions. This is the Brout-Englert-Higgs Mechanism, which produces the Higgs Boson as a remnant, discovered at CERN in 2012. Open present problems are addressed with by searching the New Physics Beyond-the-Standard-Model.