Abstract: We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of M-Z is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on e(+)e(-) data) is considered, the preferred region (for μ> 0) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-mu possibilities.

Abstract: We perform a complete one-loop computation of the two-body flavour-changing top decays t --> ch and t --> cV (V = gamma, Z), within the aligned two-Higgs-doublet model. We evaluate the impact of the model parameters on the associated branching ratios, taking into account constraints from flavour data and measurements of the Higgs properties. Assuming that the 125 GeV Higgs corresponds to the lightest CP-even scalar of the CP-conserving aligned two-Higgs-doublet model, we find that the rates for such flavour-changing top decays lie below the expected sensitivity of the future high-luminosity phase of the LHC. Measurements of the Higgs signal strength in the di-photon channel are found to play an important role in limiting the size of the t --> ch decay rate when the charged scalar of the model is light.

Abstract: We perform a classification of all potential supersymmetric R-parity violating signatures at the LHC to address the question: are existing bounds on supersymmetric models robust, or are there still signatures not covered by existing searches, allowing LHCscale supersymmetry to be hiding? We analyze all possible scenarios with one dominant RPV trilinear coupling at a time, allowing for arbitrary LSPs and mass spectra. We consider direct production of the LSP, as well as production via gauge-cascades, and find 6 different experimental signatures for the LL <overline> E -case, 6 for the LQ <overline> D -case, and 5 for the <overline> U <overline> D <overline> D -case; together these provide complete coverage of the RPV-MSSM landscape. This set of signatures is confronted with the existing searches by ATLAS and CMS. We find all signatures have been covered at the LHC, although not at the sensitivity level needed to probe the direct production of all LSP types. For the case of a dominant LL <overline> E -operator, we use CheckMATE to quantify the current lower bounds on the supersymmetric masses and find the limits to be comparable to or better than the R-parity conserving case. Our treatment can be easily extended to scenarios with more than one non-zero RPV coupling.