Abstract: The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (-yEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of-yEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (fsrc) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the ryEM. For the simplest ryEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 f 0.07, while the most complex model yields fsrc = 0.79 f 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed ryEM. The quoted results for fsrc do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated ryEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our ryEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed ryEMs have gaps to reality. Our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked “out of domain” uncertainties in future interpretations.

Abstract: The Fermi Collaboration has recently updated their analysis of gamma rays from the center of the Galaxy. They reconfirm the presence of an unexplained emission feature which is most prominent in the region of 1-10 GeV, known as the Galactic Center GeV excess (GCE). Although the GCE is now fi rmly detected, an interpretation of this emission as a signal of self-annihilating dark matter (DM) particles is not unambiguously possible due to systematic effects in the gamma-ray modeling estimated in the Galactic Plane. In this paper we build a covariance matrix, collecting different systematic uncertainties investigated in the Fermi Collaboration's paper that affect the GCE spectrum. We show that models where part of the GCE is due to annihilating DM is still consistent with the new data. We also re-evaluate the parameter space regions of the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) that can contribute dominantly to the GCE via neutralino DM annihilation. All recent constraints from DM direct detection experiments such as PICO, LUX, PandaX and Xenon1T, limits on the annihilation cross section from dwarf spheroidal galaxies and the Large Hadron Collider limits are considered in this analysis. Due to a slight shift in the energy spectrum of the GC excess with respect to the previous Fermi analysis, and the recent limits from direct detection experiments, we find a slightly shifted parameter region of the MSSM, compared to our previous analysis, that is consistent with the GCE. Neutralinos with a mass between 85-220 GeV can describe the excess via annihilation into a pair of W-bosons or top quarks. Remarkably, there are models with low fine-tuning among the regions that we have found. The complete set of solutions will be probed by upcoming direct detection experiments and with dedicated searches in the upcoming data of the Large Hadron Collider.

Abstract: The extraction of the neutrino mass ordering is one of the major challenges in particle physics and cosmology, not only for its implications for a fundamental theory of mass generation in nature, but also for its decisive role in the scale of future neutrinoless double beta decay experimental searches. It has been recently claimed that current oscillation, beta decay and cosmological limits on the different observables describing the neutrino mass parameter space provide robust decisive Bayesian evidence in favor of the normal ordering of the neutrino mass spectrum [1]. We further investigate these strong claims using a rich and wide phenomenology, with different sampling techniques of the neutrino parameter space. Contrary to the findings of Jimenez et al. [1], no decisive evidence for the normal mass ordering is found. Neutrino mass ordering analyses must rely on priors and parameterizations that are ordering-agnostic: robust results should be regarded as those in which the preference for the normal neutrino mass ordering is driven exclusively by the data, while we find a difference of up to a factor of 33 in the Bayes factors among the different priors and parameterizations exploited here. An ordering-agnostic prior would be represented by the case of parameterizations sampling over the two mass splittings and a mass scale, or those sampling over the individual neutrino masses via normal prior distributions only. In this regard, we show that the current significance in favor of the normal mass ordering should be taken as 2.7 sigma (i.e. moderate evidence), mostly driven by neutrino oscillation data. Let us stress that, while current data favor NO only mildly, we do not exclude the possibility that this may change in the future. Eventually, upcoming oscillation and cosmological data may (or may not) lead to a more significant exclusion of IO.