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Author |
Bridges, M.; Cranmer, K.; Feroz, F.; Hobson, M.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
A coverage study of the CMSSM based on ATLAS sensitivity using fast neural networks techniques |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Journal of High Energy Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. High Energy Phys. |
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Volume |
03 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
012 - 23pp |
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Keywords |
Supersymmetry; Phenomenology |
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Abstract  |
We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of similar to 10(4) with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves. |
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Address |
[Bridges, Michael; Feroz, Farhan; Hobson, Mike] Univ Cambridge, Cavendish Lab, Astrophys Grp, Cambridge CB3 0HE, England, Email: mb435@mrao.cam.ac.uk |
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Publisher |
Springer |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1126-6708 |
ISBN |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
ISI:000289295200012 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
610 |
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Author |
Bertone, G.; Cumberbatch, D.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. |
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Volume |
01 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
004 - 24pp |
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Keywords |
dark matter theory; dark matter experiments; neutrino detectors; solar and atmospheric neutrinos |
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Abstract |
The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the “Nightmare scenario” of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity at 14TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as similar or equal to 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation. |
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Address |
[Bertone, Gianfranco] Univ Zurich, Inst Theoret Phys, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland, Email: bertone@iap.fr |
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Publisher |
Iop Publishing Ltd |
Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1475-7516 |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000300403300004 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
937 |
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Author |
Cabrera, M.E.; Casas, J.A.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Quantifying the tension between the Higgs mass and (g-2)(mu) in the constrained MSSM |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Physical Review D |
Abbreviated Journal |
Phys. Rev. D |
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Volume |
84 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
015006 - 7pp |
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Keywords |
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Abstract |
Supersymmetry has often been invoked as the new physics that might reconcile the experimental muon magnetic anomaly, a(mu), with the theoretical prediction (basing the computation of the hadronic contribution on e(+)e(-) data). However, in the context of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), the required supersymmetric contributions (which grow with decreasing supersymmetric masses) are in potential tension with a possibly large Higgs mass (which requires large stop masses). In the limit of very large m(h) supersymmetry gets decoupled, and the CMSSM must show the same discrepancy as the standard model with a(mu). But it is much less clear for which size of m(h) does the tension start to be unbearable. In this paper, we quantify this tension with the help of Bayesian techniques. We find that for m(h) >= 125 GeV the maximum level of discrepancy given the current data (similar to 3.2 sigma) is already achieved. Requiring less than 3 sigma discrepancy, implies m(h) less than or similar to 120 GeV. For a larger Higgs mass we should give up either the CMSSM model or the computation of a(mu) based on e(+)e(-); or accept living with such an inconsistency. |
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Address |
[Cabrera, ME; Casas, JA] UAM, IFT UAM CSIC, Inst Fis Teor, Madrid 28049, Spain, Email: maria.cabrera@uam.es |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Amer Physical Soc |
Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1550-7998 |
ISBN |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000292547200003 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
680 |
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Author |
Feroz, F.; Cranmer, K.; Hobson, M.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Trotta, R. |
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Title |
Challenges of profile likelihood evaluation in multi-dimensional SUSY scans |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Journal of High Energy Physics |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. High Energy Phys. |
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Volume |
06 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
042 - 23pp |
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Keywords |
Supersymmetry Phenomenology |
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Abstract |
Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MULTINEST, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration previously used in the literarture is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MULTINEST configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MULTINEST is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded. |
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Address |
[Feroz, F; Hobson, M] Univ Cambridge, Cavendish Lab, Cambridge CB3 0HE, England, Email: f.feroz@mrao.cam.ac.uk |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Springer |
Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1126-6708 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
WOS:000293136500042 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ elepoucu @ |
Serial |
745 |
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Author |
Trotta, R.; Johannesson, G.; Moskalenko, I.V.; Porter, T.A.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Strong, A.W. |
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Title |
Constraints on Cosmic-Ray Propagation Models from a Global Bayesian Analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Astrophysical Journal |
Abbreviated Journal |
Astrophys. J. |
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Volume |
729 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
106 - 16pp |
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Keywords |
astroparticle physics; cosmic rays; diffusion; Galaxy: general; ISM: general; methods: statistical |
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Abstract |
Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e. g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, gamma-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP. |
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Address |
[Trotta, R.] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Astrophys Grp, Blackett Lab, London SW7 2AZ, England |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Iop Publishing Ltd |
Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0004-637x |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
ISI:000288608700029 |
Approved |
no |
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Is ISI |
yes |
International Collaboration |
yes |
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Call Number |
IFIC @ pastor @ |
Serial |
541 |
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| Permanent link to this record |
