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Amoroso, S., Caron, S., Jueid, A., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Skands, P. (2019). Estimating QCD uncertainties in Monte Carlo event generators for gamma-ray dark matter searches. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 05(5), 007–44pp.
Abstract: Motivated by the recent galactic center gamma-ray excess identified in the Fermi-LAT data, we perform a detailed study of QCD fragmentation uncertainties in the modeling of the energy spectra of gamma-rays from Dark-Matter (DM) annihilation. When Dark-Matter particles annihilate to coloured final states, either directly or via decays such as W(*) -> qq-', photons are produced from a complex sequence of shower, hadronisation and hadron decays. In phenomenological studies their energy spectra are typically computed using Monte Carlo event generators. These results have however intrinsic uncertainties due to the specific model used and the choice of model parameters, which are difficult to asses and which are typically neglected. We derive a new set of hadronisation parameters (tunes) for the PYTHIA 8.2 Monte Carlo generator from a fit to LEP and SLD data at the Z peak. For the first time we also derive a conservative set of uncertainties on the shower and hadronisation model parameters. Their impact on the gamma-ray energy spectra is evaluated and discussed for a range of DM masses and annihilation channels. The spectra and their uncertainties are also provided in tabulated form for future use. The fragmentation-parameter uncertainties may be useful for collider studies as well.
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Jueid, A., Kip, J., Ruiz de Austri, R., & Skands, P. (2023). Impact of QCD uncertainties on antiproton spectra from dark-matter annihilation. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 04(4), 068–15pp.
Abstract: Dark-matter particles that annihilate or decay can undergo complex sequences of processes, including strong and electromagnetic radiation, hadronisation, and hadron de-cays, before particles that are stable on astrophysical time scales are produced. Antiprotons produced in this way may leave footprints in experiments such as AMS-02. Several groups have reported an excess of events in the antiproton flux in the rigidity range of 10-20 GV. However, the theoretical modeling of baryon production is not straightforward and relies in part on phenomenological models in Monte Carlo event generators. In this work, we assess the impact of QCD uncertainties on the spectra of antiprotons from dark-matter annihila-tion. As a proof-of-principle, we show that for a two-parameter model that depends only on the thermally-averaged annihilation cross section ((o -v)) and the dark-matter mass (Mx), QCD uncertainties can affect the best-fit mass by up to ti 14% (with large uncertainties for large DM masses), depending on the choice of Mx and the annihilation channel (bb over bar or W+W-), and (o -v) by up to ti 10%. For comparison, changes to the underlying diffusion parameters are found to be within 1%-5%, and the results are also quite resilient to the choice of cosmic-ray propagation model. These findings indicate that QCD uncertainties need to be included in future DM analyses. To facilitate full-fledged analyses, we provide the spectra in tabulated form including QCD uncertainties and code snippets to perform mass interpolations and quick DM fits. The code can be found in this GitHub [1] repository.
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Balaudo, A., Calore, F., De Romeri, V., & Donato, F. (2024). NAJADS: a self-contained framework for the direct determination of astrophysical J-factors. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 02(2), 001–33pp.
Abstract: Cosmological simulations play a pivotal role in understanding the properties of the dark matter (DM) distribution in both galactic and galaxy -cluster environments. The characterization of DM structures is crucial for informing indirect DM searches, aiming at the detection of the annihilation (or decay) products of DM particles. A fundamental quantity in these analyses is the astrophysical J -factor. In the DM phenomenology community, J -factors are typically computed through the semi -analytical modelling of the DM mass distribution, which is affected by large uncertainties. With the scope of addressing and possibly reducing these uncertainties, we present NAJADS, a self-contained framework to derive the DM J -factor directly from the raw simulations data. We show how this framework can be used to compute all -sky maps of the J -factor, automatically accounting for the complex 3D structure of the simulated halos and for the boosting of the signal due to the density fluctuations along the line of sight. After validating our code, we present a proof -of -concept application of NAJADS to a realistic halo from the IllustrisTNG suite, and exploit it to make a thorough comparison between our numerical approach and traditional semi -analytical methods. JCAP02(2024)001
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Moline, A., Ibarra, A., & Palomares-Ruiz, S. (2015). Future sensitivity of neutrino telescopes to dark matter annihilations from the cosmic diffuse neutrino signal. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 06(6), 005–34pp.
Abstract: Cosmological observations and cold dark matter N-body simulations indicate that our Universe is populated by numerous halos, where dark matter particles annihilate, potentially producing Standard Model particles. In this paper we calculate the contribution to the diffuse neutrino background from dark matter annihilations in halos at all redshifts and we estimate the future sensitivity to the annihilation cross section of neutrino telescopes such as IceCube or ANTARES. We consider various parametrizations to describe the internal halo properties and for the halo mass function in order to bracket the theoretical uncertainty in the limits from the modeling of the cosmological annihilation flux. We find that observations of the cosmic diffuse neutrino flux at large angular distances from the galactic center lead to constraints on the dark matter annihilation cross section which are complementary to ( and for some extrapolations of the astrophysical parameters, better than) those stemming from observations of the Milky Way halo, especially for neutrino telescopes not pointing directly to the Milky Way center, as is the case of IceCube.
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Bernal, N., Forero-Romero, J. E., Garani, R., & Palomares-Ruiz, S. (2014). Systematic uncertainties from halo asphericity in dark matter searches. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 09(9), 004–30pp.
Abstract: Although commonly assumed to be spherical, dark matter halos are predicted to be non-spherical by N-body simulations and their asphericity has a potential impact on the systematic uncertainties in dark matter searches. The evaluation of these uncertainties is the main aim of this work, where we study the impact of aspherical dark matter density distributions in Milky-Way-like halos on direct and indirect searches. Using data from the large N-body cosmological simulation Bolshoi, we perform a statistical analysis and quantify the systematic uncertainties on the determination of local dark matter density and the so-called J factors for dark matter annihilations and decays from the galactic center. We find that, due to our ignorance about the extent of the non-sphericity of the Milky Way dark matter halo, systematic uncertainties can be as large as 35%, within the 95% most probable region, for a spherically averaged value for the local density of 0.3-0.4 GeV/cm(3). Similarly, systematic uncertainties on the J factors evaluated around the galactic center can be as large as 10% and 15%, within the 95% most probable region, for dark matter annihilations and decays, respectively.
Keywords: dark matter theory; dark matter simulations
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de Putter, R., Wagner, C., Mena, O., Verde, L., & Percival, W. J. (2012). Thinking outside the box: effects of modes larger than the survey on matter power spectrum covariance. J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys., 04(4), 019–31pp.
Abstract: Accurate power spectrum (or correlation function) covariance matrices are a crucial requirement for cosmological parameter estimation from large scale structure surveys. In order to minimize reliance on computationally expensive mock catalogs, it is important to have a solid analytic understanding of the different components that make up a covariance matrix. Considering the matter power spectrum covariance matrix, it has recently been found that there is a potentially dominant effect on mildly non-linear scales due to power in modes of size equal to and larger than the survey volume. This beat coupling effect has been derived analytically in perturbation theory and while it has been tested with simulations, some questions remain unanswered. Moreover, there is an additional effect of these large modes, which has so far not been included in analytic studies, namely the effect on the estimated average density which enters the power spectrum estimate. In this article, we work out analytic, perturbation theory based expressions including both the beat coupling and this local average effect and we show that while, when isolated, beat coupling indeed causes large excess covariance in agreement with the literature, in a realistic scenario this is compensated almost entirely by the local average effect, leaving only similar to 10% of the excess. We test our analytic expressions by comparison to a suite of large N-body simulations, using both full simulation boxes and subboxes thereof to study cases without beat coupling, with beat coupling and with both beat coupling and the local average effect. For the variances, we find excellent agreement with the analytic expressions for k < 0.2 hMpc(-1) at z = 0.5, while the correlation coefficients agree to beyond k = 0.4 hMpc(-1). As expected, the range of agreement increases towards higher redshift and decreases slightly towards z = 0. We finish by including the large-mode effects in a full covariance matrix description for arbitrary survey geometry and confirming its validity using simulations. This may be useful as a stepping stone towards building an actual galaxy (or other tracer's) power spectrum covariance matrix.
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