TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hernandez, P.
AU  - Pena, C.
AU  - Ramos, A.
AU  - Gomez-Cadenas, J. J.
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021//
TI  - A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times
T2  - PLoS One
JO  - Plos One
SP  - e0244107 - 22pp
VL  - 16
IS  - 2
PB  - Public Library Science
AB  - The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are more flexible, yet do not allow for arbitrary distributions. We present a new formulation, focussing on the SEIR concept that allows to include general distributions of incubation and removal times. We compare the solution to two types of agent-based model simulations, a spatially homogeneous one where infection occurs by proximity, and a model on a scale-free network with varying clustering properties, where the infection between any two agents occurs via their link if it exists. We find good agreement in both cases. Furthermore a family of asymptotic solutions of the equations is found in terms of a logistic curve, which after a non-universal time shift, fits extremely well all the microdynamical simulations. The formulation allows for a simple numerical approach; software in Julia and Python is provided.
SN  - 1932-6203
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09975
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244107
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0244107
LA  - English
N1  - WOS:000616739700053
ID  - Hernandez_etal2021
ER  -